Read it and let your teenagers read it. http://www.amazon.com/Poor-Richards-Almanack-Gift-Editions/dp/0880889187
If this week is supposed to "set the tone" for 2009... institutions and govmt are fighting hard to float it. At least I guess.?.? I cannot view this week on purely technicals. (Obama = tax cut; who'da thought it 6 months ago!) I see anything over 910/11ish as bullish weekly (50% retrace of the "artificial" two weeks of holiday trading, etc...) Others might need DOW at 9,000, don't know.
Extreme buying has not subsized at all even after the drop to opening range top. Based on the price action and extreme tick reading since last week, a hard sell off is not out of the question now. The problem is that if the high is in place already or not. Remember many people talk about first week of year indicator, first 3 days of year indicator, etc. They got one already as the first week of year has only 1 trading day.
The spin is simple - because that does not count due to the fact that Obama is not in office until after Inaguration. So must sell off to an extreme low to get as much inventory as possible ...
LC, The stocktrader's almanac study is first 5 trading days of new year as predictor of Jan performance. Jan supposedly tells the year. I don't think it's anything worth following.
850 to 1000 range for now http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=6m how about we get near 1000 in Jan, then a fall back to ~850 to set up the ihs that then runs from ~850 to 1100 during the rest of the year.
Scenario is clear now - 1. Break down trendlines from the peak, going to R1 at 40 2. Break uptrendline + VWAP + open range at 24, going to S1 at 04