ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Mar 2, 2006.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. porgie, it`s not a problem with a system it`s a problem with more or less random marketnoise, the less volume in the market, the more the chop and spikes, the more the "Big Boys" are playing stopfishing, that`s the reason too why breakouts over HOD/LOD in Lunchhour are rarely meaningful. In a nice market with nice swings and lot of volume and low noise, of course very small stops are working pretty fine.

    I remember one loss in DAX in a flat slow market with low volume, i had a reasonable stop ~12 points, there occured a ligthning fast candle down to my stop going up again immediately to the price before, didn`t look at T&S (or had no at this time..) I guess i was the only idiot getting hit by this. If liquity and volume is going down and /or trading in low volume times of day you are in danger with small stops, facing low profit probabilities at the same time. Of course best is to avoid such an environment at all....
     
    #741     Apr 17, 2006
  2. and you may know it after 2-3 losses, uuuh choppy today..., nobody tells you in advance that this will be a choppy/spiky day, you see it after the fact.
     
    #742     Apr 17, 2006
  3. Don't thrust Yahoo for correct data. I have completely different data, don't know anymore where i got it, but for years now i get my data from Esignal. Much more accurate than Yahoo.
    I trade for years with a 2 points stop. I seldom got stopped out, so apparently i don't have problems with higher volatility. High volatility mostly creates problems if you are trading AGAINST the trend. If you trade WITH the trend you will see that the big moves go in the direction of the trend. Maybe know you will understand why trading WIth the trend is so important.
     
    #743     Apr 17, 2006
  4. romik

    romik

    That's what would happen a lot to a trader that does not know WHERE to enter into a trade. And based on above paragraph, it's clear now why small size stops would not work in your case. You can have a great system, based on chart analyses, but what about price action?
     
    #744     Apr 17, 2006
  5. The time I entered market looked good, but went flat soon....
     
    #745     Apr 17, 2006
  6. romik

    romik

    Know the behaviour patterns of the instrument you are trading, why do you think some of us EXCLUSIVELY trade just one instrument? It does happen though, that's why small size stop is in place.
     
    #746     Apr 17, 2006
  7. If you refer to trade only "good" priceaction, you are facing some probs, sometimes the market dries out soon after some nice move/volume. Next how do you objectively define "good" priceaction, from what level of movement/volume does it begin or end? It`s a matter of your daily motivation, how much hours sleep, amount of caffeinlevel, may be you had some emotional stuff with your girl, level of agressivity or whatever. And yes I´m not in the situation beeing day after day completely relaxed, concentrated, objectiv, in a good mood, not having a hangover from tonight or whatever leading to distorted perceptions, so I can not rely on my sight of market day after day, hour after hour, minute for minute. But I can do fine work between when I´m powerful in ideas and testing strats or doing stats about marketaction. So I build my basics before and act after it, no matter if tired or sad or stressed or whatever. If you are every day on peak performance level with cristal clear perception, you have my very deep respect! Really! Not joking.
     
    #747     Apr 17, 2006
  8. romik

    romik

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1035649#post1035649

    Check out Candletrader's post, also do a search for NihabaAshi's posts on risk v return. Most successful short term traders (retail or pro) are into relatively small stops, the biggest mistake being in a short term trade is letting the winners become losers, I can't really put it simpler than that. All you have to do is find a way.

    Not trading today, all the best to all.

    Romik
     
    #748     Apr 17, 2006
  9. mmmmmhh, By looking this thread i find this here....

    ...it depends on the setup

    many of my setups are vigorously backtested, so i have no problem risking (for example) 21 pts to get a 78% chance of winning 14 pts

    now, that is an unacceptable risk/reward ratio by some reckonings, but ... do the math

    risk/reward only makes sense if computed in regards to the probability of that positive outcome
    ...
     
    #749     Apr 17, 2006
  10. No word about small stops, if translating this in my world, if I´m looking for 5-8 points ES for the day I can(and should..)use a stop of 5-10 points if tested with good probabilty, if you are pointing for 1.5 points ES you have to use a 2 point ES stop, I see some limitations in the math cause the higher Noiselevel in very short timeframes, but that`s all I said, there is NO optimal stopsize, depends on Strat. so where is controversy all about ?

    I wish a good and successful trading week.
     
    #750     Apr 17, 2006
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.