I think by this time tomorrow we will be through 920. Everytime the market gets to 885ish there is a violent move up(by violent i mean brutal to trade, not a HUGE move). CANNOT fill the cash gap. I would be so happy if it did though.
Did I say sideway day? We have no news and no shocks, so it is expected that sideway tight range all the way. If the environment stays that way, just the updrift will take ES up to 1000. Well, shocks are not something that people can anticipate ... any event may trigger a huge melt up/down these days.
On daily ES chart - 2 consecutive INSIDE days Is this topping action at the end of current rally, or market coiling for big move up? Have to wait for a range breakout - bottom at 880 and top at 919. Very frustrating two days with much lower ATR. But, these were normal ATRs pre-September; I don't want these low ATR days...
Unless we test the bottom first. It's been my experience that a double-bottom is often effective but a triple-bottom is usually fatal.
looks like we're just stuck guys, chop, chop, chop. somewhat frustrating if you like trends. if you're scalping, then you're in paradise, i guess. on the daily, looks like consolidation before a further move up. if i were betting, i'd lay bets in that direction. but it could just as likely be turnaround for a move down. i vote for the up as opposed to down. we just can't seem to break 880...not that i really want it to. but now that i've said this, watch a breakdown happen tomorrow.
those ledges i've been talking about were all under the mrkt,working size bids at 820,840,860, today we got one at 900 that represented a working size offer
If this is what constitutes a choppy day, I welcome it wholeheartedly. I dread the last few years where "chop" meant a 5-point intraday range.
Well, it almost worked, almost! We got 5 points close to the full gapclose, but that 885-86 line proved to be too strong support. What we had today was a failed ADU with a snapback in the last hour. Strictly speaking a failed ADU is not an all day upper, because it melts down around 2 pm, but because in the first half it still follows the ADU timeline, so I call it a failed ADU. As I mentioned earlier, the morning was not a classic because there was a gapclose attempt, and I thought for a while we might get a delayed ADU. But once the morning bottom was at 10:50 (normal 11 ish time) I figured it isn't delayed. Sure enough we had the very shortable midday top between the scheduled 12-12:30 frame, and the midday low came only 5 minutes earlier than the usual 1-2 pm frame, giving a decent bounce. The existence of 2 gaps below just proved to be too inviting thus the market melted down first closing today's gap and later attempting to close the gap at 880. After 885 held, we rallied back and the SPX closed up 10.5 points, so I wouldn't call it sideways... So where are we now? We have been in this 885-920 range for 3 days now. On the NDX daily chart we have 2 dojis, that means consolidation and continuation, on the SPX we have 2 inside days in a row, that means reversal. We have to close below the SMA (275ish) to have a confirmed reversal.. One way to solve this contradiction would be a Wyckoff thrust. We could dip down tomorrow out of this range to fill the gap and touch the SMA then rally back and cross the whole range continuing the rally. That's what I would do if I were the market.