Arbiter...yeah, but no, but yeah, but no, but yeah, anyway just a piker over here I see a HL, but not a HH yet. I also see a TL, to be frank I don't know what the hack I am looking at right now, I'll just stick to what I am seeing & what I am not seeing I'll leave to the ones that are seeing clearer than me, phew! P.S. Have you guys watched Little Britain in USA, you lot will find it very funny, especially SS Edit: @ saliva - I understand what you are getting at, although price keeps bouncing of the TL it has now put in a HL & nearer the TL, correct? So I guess you are looking at a long play at the moment.
Here is where I start to bitch about giving back profits and such, so sensitive souls and people allergic to me don't need to read further. End of warning... So here is my analysis of your holding of the position through rain and sunshine, this is also called constructive criticism, not because I hate you: We had 2 huge up days when the ES went 120 points up. That's when you went short at 870. That was actually an excellent entry, because of the 2nd gap rule, a gapclose was pretty much guaranteed. But the trend was NOT down! It was simply a breather, a consolidation on a holiday shortened week, what is usually bullish. I mentioned that you should have covered at 840 (that was the SMA line) and sure enough we bounced back twice from it, you had 2 chances to do so. Now I happen to be lucky with my forecasts due to a birth deffect. Occasionally it pays off to pay attention to me. So you missed getting out with a nice profit of 30 points. There is nothing wrong with shorting an uptrend, but one needs to recognize that and take what the market gives. That 30 points were what the market gave and by the end of the week we went up to 895+, so the position went negative. That was the time to short, when Saliva did it. Now after 5 updays, a selloff is/was in order, although not many people thought it would be an 80 points down day. You are excellent at holding for bigger gains and probably you were the only one who held short through the carnage. But that day was an SDD, and it is pretty much a given that it bounces back overnight, so there was again another chance to lock in a nice 55 points gain and even switch to longs. The last 2 days were atypical and hard to play, but eventually we are back at breakeven for you, instead of already having booked 50-70 points. I understand that you are trying to hit a big one, but it all depends on market conditions, if/when we are in a bottoming process or going sideways, you are not going to make much with holding shorts for an extended period of time. 20 points here, and 50 points there, all ads up and you get the same or more profits than holding it for weeks...Even if we go down, I wouldn't expect a 100+ movement, at least not right now....You are trying to swing short the generally most bullish period of the year. Anyway, I just wanted to demonstrate my 20/20 analytical hindsight.
Sold half my position a few minutes ago at 865.5 which was purchased at 833.5. Stop is still 729.5 and hopefully will be able to buy back at around 800-810. DMartin Here are my other trades which started 11-17-08 11-17-08 07:51 AM I just bought ES at 854 with a stop at 698.5. The stop represents 1% of my TNW. 11-17-08 09:56 AM Sold 2/3 positions 877.75 11-17-08 10:45 AM Back to full position at 862.5 11-26-08 12:30 PM Sold half position at 883.5 12-02-08 07:14 AM Bought back half position which was sold at 883.5. Bought at 833.5 this morning which I am now fully invested with stop at 729.5.
If your intention is to buy it back at lower prices, why not just sell the whole damn thing? Why only half? Makes no sense. Since you don't plan to raise the stop, this tells me that this ain't the ordinary "sell half and let the rest ride" pitch. Anyway, not meant as a criticism but a friendly gesture out of concern.
Gawd, you just love to put this permabear on the spot, dontcha? Uhmm, the short answer is no. Sticking to the textbook definition, whatever that may be, the purist within me sez this market should head higher. But I dunno. This market has too much bullshit built in and I find it literally nauseating. So, I will just sit on my bare ass for now.
My intention is to buy it back and I absolutely could be wrong. However, I if my "edges" are correct this time I will do well. And I suppose, like Pekelo communicated it doesn't hurt to take some profit. Part of my reasoning is the ES has moved quite a distance in a short time, it wasn't able to get above 875 with any authority, and the McClellan Oscillator -- which closed tonight at 234.06 is one of its most overbought readings of the year. Dmartin
b1 s2 has an appetite for huge moves with huge positions,forgive him for being a novice when spu's move up and down 3-4% in a day,doesn't fit his huge moves,slower market dynamics,dino,you are trading the same as b1s2 with a smaller bankroll,hence,your advantage, 50 point moves work in your favor,huge advantage, kudos, great trades so far,but ....there is a john prine song where the refrain is dear abby,you have no complaints,stop wishing for bad luck and knockin on wood, This is a great journal and i enjoy it, i know thru experience that nothing really great lasts for too long,how great was apex?enjoy the good parts of life as they come along, and admit that they are great and may fade and always be on the lookout for the good stuff......as for gold and jss,did you ever meet the cheerleader that was a knockout and the endall and get together and find out she was no different ,everything about the same,no better ,no worse,just judy,well thats my opinion on gold,its a near worthless metal and when all the hype is over,it will be back at 250 or less,sell into all the baywatch groupees and when it declines ,you can use your extra wealth to buy food and gas on the black market ...... ps , went back 3 or 4 threads and dino didnt curse anyone, so dino my apologies
Damn, I can use a joint myself. Can't fall asleep and I have nothing better to do than to watch ES, along with DAX and FTSE, shoot up on the expectation that BOE and ECB will jointly slash the interest rates. Others want love and peace. I just want to get high (and be left in peace).