you really beat around the bush on that one vol, thanks, i will take your word on dec exp, i shorted at 77,82 88, covered 92, shorted 96,,got smoked, you really do know those exp better than any one i met, sos from tos used to come into oex at 2:45 and he was good at it just as good if not better ,but your doing it from home, my hat's off
jahajee and lc, what do you think of the notion that when the volatility dries up,then we have a bottom?
Volatility usually induces more volatility. It takes a long time for that to go back to a level, like early 2007. If low volatility means in general public no longer wants to even talk about stocks, then I guess that a longer term bottom is made
i left out the you're in ( just as good if not better)should have been,you're just as good if not better
Take the pa from the 13th and 14th and turn it on it's ass and looks exactly like the 20th and 21st, including the overnight drifts. I honestly do not see geometric or other shapes in pa (wedges, ledges, hs, triangles, butttocks or boobies, etc), but those are two striking inverted patterns. Interesting time based distribution of volume the last 2 days as well. The point of it all being? I do not know, but could be a larger part of the crispy poop formation at hand, will need to sample some larger historical data to see.
I was not trying to beat around the bush, next time I will just say the number instead of posting the strike for it.
i was being facetious, you couldn't have been any more to the point,thanks, my fault for not trading a gimme
ammo don't beat yourself up, nothing is a gimme (see last month). This works a high % of the time, but doesn't when it doesn't. 900 was really the original target, the bulk of the open interest on 800 puts didn't come in until expiration week.
When VIX stays below 40 for a few days then then bottom would have been made. Some use a 5-day RSI of the VIX to determine when the VIX is "overbought" and "oversold"; Others use the hourly VIX. For VIX to go down, the markets must go up... VIX being inverse to market direction. Thus, by the time VIX declines to neutral range - about 25 to 25 - the bottom would have been in place for some time. In intraday trading, the intraday VIX is useful - I have 1m TICK and VIX charts, monitoring them to indentify possible intraday turning points when TICK goes below - 1000 or above 1000 and VIX spikes down or up. The sustained elevated VIX and volatilities we have seen during the past three months are unusual and first time ever witnesed by traders. Even 1987 never produced such high VIX values for so long a period. There will be no bottom unless VIX gets below 50, and then declines sharply to 25 or 30. But, as I pointed out above, by that time the SPX would have rallied 200 points or more. VIX dropped abot 10% on Friday, from 80 to 72. Still solidly located in bear zone above 50 but it is likely to decline to about 50 to 60 after 2 or 3 days then back up again. Yeah, I think there will be a mini bear market rally to 850 or possibly 900, then more declines as tax-loss selling and hedge fund redemptions continue into December. Also, there may be Q4 earnings warnings in mid to late December.
The put interest was there at 80 on spy long before oe week. Actual max pain was 97 if you believe in that nonsense.