I typically show a 15 to 20 percent gain over the whole. This year is a little below the 15 at the moment due to my deployment in cash for the most part. As regards the weekly, I see what you are saying, but it is most likely a possible bounce only and not a reversal. This is part of the reason why the stop would have to be that large for a new short here. (the potential bounce). However, I would also say that you are being very anticipatory in your view of the RSI.
ES futures hit a low of 767.25 during the second week of October 2002. It will be interesting to see if that number is of any consequence. I imagine that it gets tested and eventually moves through it significantly.