Get em on the horn for me volente Its not looking too good. Zone tested and repelled quickly multiple times but they keep coming back. 5-min MACD histo also suggests further downside. However when this occurs and further downside doesn't come the move up is generally more powerful.
No doubt, this has got to be the most challenging times for both bulls and bears alike. The last thing to expect from this market is any semblance of reason or rhyme. Hence, I can't answer whether this market is falling too fast or not. Anything goes is my latest motto. As for jumping the gun at 760, I can't give you a definitive answer on that either. But you would need a nerve of steel to jump the gun in this kind of market. I wouldn't peg too much hope unless proven otherwise.
If that happens, keep an eye on the 80 spy put interest, if you see it spike, then they are going to smoke the shorts as this runs back to 850-880 min intraday by friday.
Everyone is eyeing 760-780 on the cash, because it is likely to go there. Last year, the SPX hit a new all-time high, crossed the March 2000 high of 1552 or so, made it up to around 25 points in fresh breakout territory, and then went back into the range--a Wyckoff upthrust, a failed upside breakout. The market will now test the other side--the October 2002 low of 768 and change. This is a low risk buy area. Likely it will break the 2002 lows, maybe even dip 20 or so points below, and then the bear move will be over.
No, that ain't the bottom of the cesspool. Granted that there will be a relief rally or two or three, or possibly four as we've lately seen, we're heading down to 500. Plus, there's no way we'll get a V-shape reversal once we hit the bottom. It's going to be a long and painful U-shape recovery.
1929,1987 highs, tl supp at 795-800 , we've been above this since 95. 1942,74 and 1982 lows bring in a tl near 610. It's logical that we break this line and trade in the 600-800 range,but i would think there would be too much money to be made on exp,especially since the volatility would dry up if we move into a 200 point range. They could pop it up on fri opening for the spx mark,and then sell it hard into the close for the spy options,if they could actually orchestrate this move ,it would be hard to pass up. Purely conjecture,not a prediction.