Now this was really pushing it! You just couldnt of asked for a later close. Next time ask your boys, not to be so late.
Since last time Fed doing all its weekend stuff, I no longer hold anything overnight ... do not need that heart attack level excitement I stopped early today knowing Obama news conference is a wild card and that probably saved my day. USD/JPY rally is critical going forward into next week if equities around the world wanted a year end rally. It must break out of the downtrend as soon as possible to make that happen. Have a nice weekend!
WOW! What a horrible day! Bad breakout of overtradaritis. Lost most of my money on that -extenuatingly long- triangle/HS period (I was betting down) and kept having bad entries with bad stops. Caught the drop from 928ish to 917, for a total of 11 points. Why was I out? because my stop was too close and missed out on the second step to 910-911. After that gain I got paranoid and my two following trades ended up being scalps for quarter points. Stopped after that. What did I end up with, including that 11 pt gain? A whopping 28 dollars.
With all due respect, do you seriously believe there will be a Santa Clause rally this year?! Can we demand from a bankrupt store to honor the annual Christmas sale just because it has always been the tradition? That sounds looney to me.
The USD/JPY chart has one setup that can be interpreted both ways. The sudden drop and (almost) immediate rebound last week can be a spring that signal an important low is in for the currency pair. Or, it could be a multi year breakdown pointing to much lower price level. Since there is no volume information for currencies, I have one less tool to confirm whether it is the first one or the second one. So I am keeping an open mind for now.
We got that close! Now I am looking for higher prices since we have nothing on the economic calender until Friday. Will be watching the Asian market for confirmation. If we manage to stay above Fridays close after the Asian open our first area of resistance will be the 944 area. If not and we pull-back first, I will be looking for support to hold at the 930 area and then a move back up to test the 944 area. Break-down or break-out who cares! Either way 930-944 is the area of interest for me.
Don't we have oil inventories every Wednesday? Also, the three stooges (George, Hank, Ben) will eventually pop up in front of the cameras sometime. They love the attention. How plausible is the scenario of going up till Thanksgiving, going choppy till the new year (sales are good!/Sales are bad! Rinse, repeat) And then further drop in much of 09. Of course, my scenario is based on the idea that GM nor any big bank or credit company go bankrupt till then...
I don't make long term predictions, my view is always on the shorter term. Don't really care what the conditions are just what I am reading and seeing. IF you Look at the daily you cant disagree with the idea that we are in a state of consolidation. We have had some shitty stuff thrown at us weeks earlier and here we are, still in consolidation. Yes you are right all those items you have posted they would have an impact on the market. That's why I favor Globex more, its either before those what ifs or its after and it still gives you plenty to work with.