I don't know, bro. In my eyes, ES actually turns the corner faster than USD/JPY. Be that as it may, I taking a small short position here @ 999.50
We held opening range, the highest possible support level. Next upside target will very well in be the range of 1020, where a more critical sell zone exists. Edit: Today is 2nd day where we have extreme tick index reading without much upside action, not good for bulls.
Lawrence, thanks for all the comments, very insightful. Can you please explain a bit what you mean by "extreme tick index reading "? where and what exactly are you observing? thank you very much.
I would gladly take an overall upside loss if wrong but I think we test the lows. Bush, Iran and N. Korea have unfinished business and I think they start to press in every way possible. Just the concern of the wildcard being dealt will be enough to mute any rally. Again, hope I am wrong and will catch the next move.
Thank you. Extreme tick index reading - The NYSE Tick Index swing between positive and negative #. Lately, the "trend buy mode" of the mkt can be identified easily when we see a reading of 900+ early in the day, and the "pull back" of ES does not result in a big negative reading. Similar behaviour for "trend sell mode". BUT, when you have Tick index > 900 on extremes and a mild negative reading (say, > -200) on pull backs, while the ES is going nowhere from the open ... there is something wrong with the mkt internals ... i.e. everyone who want to jump in are jumping in, but such action fails to push the price much higher. The reverse is also true for swing bottoms. Do not take my word for that, check it out yourself. It is surprisingly accurate as a daily timeframe signal. Edit: Based on Tick Index only, we are suppose to get BIG trend up buying in the past 2 days (at least in most part of the RTH), but no such confirmed move at all.
Understanding your view. Been waiting for a confirmed sell signal on higher time frame and that worked only for an hour today before the last hr squeeze job The "post crash" environment is one of the worst to trade in, as far as my experience goes - smaller range, sudden swings, fake high/low, etc. Today and yesterday are the smallest range days in the past month, go figure!