if u deal with pattern analysis, all timeframes trade the same way...240 1 5 60 240 daily weekly monthly, they are fractals. the monthly is impulsing, what the brain perceives to happen, happens since traders project out what the subconscious has known all along will happen. what do you think the markets will do when we get a -350K nonfarm payrolls.. and remember we got those numbers in not as worse times as these. http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/Sur...&series_id=CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth
350K jobs will be were lost in October? Where did this come from? I expect huge job loss and a very bad Jobs report, and many many awful economic reports and earning during the next 2 or 3 quarters. But... the markets price in bad news, bad economy, slow growth, bad earnings etc. That's why it is down big time now. Remember, we have lost all of the last bull market, back down to where we were 5 years ago, getting down to post-nasdaq 5k in 2000. So many people are almost ecstatic at markets being down and economy tanking, not because they are short and making money but because they simply want America and the West to go down in flames. Not gonna happen. They were out there proclaiming the End of the World, shouting on the rooftops in 1987, in 2000, in 2001, in 2002, in 2003, and now again in 2008. I warn traders - never underestimate the Fed and Treasury, and Central Banks, throughout the world. You can whine about conspiracies and government action but understand they have a duty and obligation to prevent a collapse of the systesm. When short, beware they can come in any time. We may or may not like that but in trading you put aside the politics and ranting and focus on the markets.
do you even understand what the true power game is?... its about monopolizing power and to stay dominant. its in the best interest of the Treasury and the West to create a 10 year long deflationary period. We were sending rivers of money to our enemies with a inflationary feedback loop. That money would have been used to modernize their weapons system, look at the egotistical move Russia did in Georgia. What do you think happened to Russia now.. their markets are toast, Oil will be sub 50 dollars soon. What is best for a nation that prints endless debt, deflation. Massive deflation is the only cure for the USA, and policy makers are taking us there while saying one thing in the public. Remember its about power ultimately. We destroyed the USSR, and now Russia through financial deflation.
if u connect the 8/87 and 1/94 highs on this chart spec,we hit that trendline at 840 and may build a base and bounce from here
THAT war was won. Two decades ago. America is the only superpower. Period. I love Georgia but that was a silly and dangerous venture into South Ossieta. I am confident that America will once again recover from this latest debacle and become even stronger. Stupid Paulson and Bernanke alowed Lehman to fail and the rest is history. Paulson goes in a few months and Bernanke also, he should step down. The guy is a loser, does not instill any confidence, looks like a bum, and is terribly boring and dull. Paulson is not much better. Good riddance to both. Note other countries are also weaker and suffering similiar economic problems; it is not as if with America experiencing problems there are other nations becoming stronger and achieving superpower status above America. Who can do this? Russia? EU? Japan? China? India?..... Whatever value the S&P falls is almost immaterial because the markets will recover. SPX 1500 in 4 years.
How do you square this with the experience of Japan? They went through a similar credit/RE bust, and America's savings situation is much worse. Interestingly, just as we've seen with the US indexes, a year after the top the Nikkei had lost about a third of its value - 38k to 23-26k. That was in 1991; N225 is now at 8,500. I don't know about you but the SPX has collapsed far faster than I personally was expecting. I think we won't get it this bad if only because our population is still growing, and therefore the economy=stock market will grow in absolute terms (in Japan, even GDP growth of zero means an increase in per-capita terms, though evidently it's not the stuff of bull markets). But, the historical warnings are there nonetheless. It goes without saying that a similar 20-year performance on the S&P would be catastrophic for the USA, due to our reliance on 401(k)s and the like. You thought the $40 trillion SS hole was bad before...
So you are mixing SPX & ES when you say 2 downgaps in a row, I see. I didn't see ES downgap yesterday after the close, was there one on your chart?