Lets pretend for a second that the monthly chart you just posted is a 5-min or 15-min chart.... what would you expect to happen? I'd expect a small bounce (38.2% retrace at most) off that pivot (02-03 low) and then an eventual break. Momentum can't totally shift that quickly.
Every attempt to run up today is met with huge size selling at market. The liquidation process to raise cash may finish early today and for the week.
If we have a significant down day today, think about where the Asian markets would open? If you see limit down in multiple Asian countries, it is not very hard for Europe to do the same as the panic spread. They may open for 1/2 hr and then close for the rest of the day due to limit down. Then panic will spread to America ... It is very simple human nature. Thus last line of defense is today, upon how we close today.
the opening range created a triangle, we are in the range with spy 87.82 being halfway between the high/low on spy intaday. I am hoping for a break to 90. Intraday we have a lower low, and a lower high, so there is a base, but I am not going to be a fool and say we can't go lower. I do not want to miss the rally though it should be a monster when it occurs.