End of 2007 Summer I advised going short and holding to 1200-1150. February 2008 I said go short China Market. September 2008 Go long US markets.
I feel that this stop out was not triggered due to failed setup, but bad placement on my part when I moved my stop up last night. The low today is still in my support zone and the trade still valid. I'm long again on SSO from 51.27... same size, stop a few cents under the LOD at 49.95. Holding 100+ SPX points minimum.
IMO, trying to use typical TA methodologies on a long-term prediction when there is a lot of serious bad fundamental news breaking each day is unwise. TA may say we have bottomed but all it takes it another piece of bad news to take us down further and I see no lack of bad news in our future. Still short ES here....
Wave, I noted it and they were great calls but far less specific. However they were right, I give you all credit for it - but not that exact like this call. Today when you said exact day and level where we start - at the moment when we are still here. You understand, if we for example rally big and tomorrow start positive the prediction - this is a bottom - will be far less valuable like now, when it every second still can go down - as minimum it looks to me that way. Not speaking about night and tomorrow morning when can happen anytime anything. For this reason if you are correct today it will be 100x better call. Btw, we are 70 points up on gold. I can not believe it is possible. What did gold during 87 crash?
Remember what happened to the financial stocks the day before the SEC decided to enforce the naked short selling rules on them? The shorts drove them down as far as they could and it was straight up from there for a while.
This time option market making firms are forced to deal with their delta short ... It is very hard to figure out if we can get the same kind of rally this time. That's why I say I hate policy changes, again and again.
Does TA say we have bottomed? On the dailies I see lower high, lower low (from 7/15), volatility expansion yesterday and today on the down-channel, and we're down 45 points on the day. Doesn't look like a bottom to me... If it is we won't know for a couple months anyway. Not that I mind really, how many days of 50pt range in the ES did we have from 03-07? I do feel sorry for people with 401(k)s getting trashed, but try to warn everyone I see away from the "markets always go up" nonsense...
I don't know but two posters back to back seemed to imply it did... "1172 cash is the 50% retracement from the 2002 low to 2007 high. October 2002 to October 2007." and "Just got my first buy signal today as well at 1178" Of course all TA is subject to interpretation; Its an art not a science - in any case my point is that anyone thinking of declaring this the bottom based on TA alone is setting themselves up for serious pain (IMO)