I am sure you all remember when 1490 was resistance, then 1390, then 1290, then 1250, and here we are at 1230 with probable future resistance at 1190, then what. Just sayin.
I suggest you refer to this chart. However, keep in mind that this market isn't so much chruning based on technical or fundamental as the psychological factor surrounding the uncertainties in the market.
1st day trading real money and what a day to start. I'm up $87.00 and now out for the day. I feel fortunate but also like I've been drawn and quartered. Got chopped up a few times, stopped out, and 2 small winners. My hand shook so bad the mouse about rattled apart. Nothing like simulated trading. I have a ways to go on the psychology trading. 1 CAR at a time and ES only. I couldn't track any more. Great trading.
I have 1170-1175 as a strong support zone. If they're going to try and turn this market soon it'll be there IMO. It has basic technical significance that even the most fundamental fund manager could see (50% retrace from 2003 lows, plus multiple hi/lo's over the past decade), smaller timeframe more technical confluence (extensions, projections) and could also be reached by capitulation on a 1200 break. In regards to what you're saying about the swing trend basing, I'm seeing that as a definite possibility. A third lower drive would form a triple MACD histo divergence on the weekly chart which is very significant. I'll post the chart I made last week when I get home.
Welcome brother, it's a great feeling ain't it Remember, to protect your account you must above all protect your psychology.