I do not use CCI so do not have statistics on that. My pure price action research though, showing that, 1. Rally from short term down to 15 min from open - yes. 2. BUT, there were at least 3 cases off my head where that fails very fast if the 15 min rally fails to convert into a stronger one on say 30-min or hourly. 3. The 3 cases are 87 crash, 98 Russian bond crisis, and right after 911 reopen of mkt. 4. So, if the bounce works, it works great. When it fails, it fails big time. Not many inbetween cases. 5. We already failed that rally attempt once yesterday in the first 2 hour since open. 1230 area as I mentioned yesterday would be key to stop the 20-day breakdown setup, it is something similar to the Oops setup (or Turtle soup whatever ) where the mkt rally strong back into the 20-day range. It may happen but looks remote at this time as that means close at 60s today. Lawrence
From 8/10/08 Profits taken at target #1 yesterday (1/4 position). Looking to get rid of the next quarter at ~$13... then $16, then holding a runner. Stop at a little above $7. Despite the index condition, I also just got long PPC at $13.21. Stop just under $11. Target in the high-teens/low-20's. What can I say... I like stocks with two P's in em
Interesting, 50% happens quite often during intraday ranges. Never really tracked day after moves. One theory that I do follow and trade is this one. What is today ?
nice trade pommy,as far as a bounce ,there is cleavage in yest mp chart at 1246-48,1245 was the 23% fib # from 1200-1313 rally,on another site a guy mentioned how the europeans can buy the dollar and us stocks ,as stocks losses mount,dollar profits soar,until this changes,(dollar starts to come down)they may continue to buy us mrkt,after 1303 to 1225 drop in spu's,this may be over,i'm not to confident with a bounce here but would like to see one as place to get short for continued down move,usually when it's this simple,it doesn't happen edit: yest nip was 41,first res
There are always exceptions. If we will remember todays date 10-20 years later it can be exception.... Btw. I looked on previous days with CCI bellow -250. It suggest big gap down, sometimes even big fall after that but close positive /often spectacular rally/ and next days positive, retest and rally.
I don't have any swing trades on right now, but will only be looking short on bounces for the foreseeable future as the major reaction low on the daily was violated yesterday.
3rd contract covered at 1221.25 (I pulled target lower right before jobs report as I managed to be up). Stop at 1252 on final contract, going for the last target.
My backtesting included all market conditions--uptrend, downtrend, and chop. On AVERAGE (mean and median) the next day retracement was in the low 50's% (I posted the study on ES trader back last year). If you want, I might be able to find it (I am busy these days during the day and might have no time until the weekend). If I were intraday trading, I would not be jumping in long until after the open. But since intraday trading is an impossibility for me until at least the 18th, I am forced to either (1) not trade at all; or (2) use backtested swing trading methods that require overnight holding and that require that I pick my spots carefully. I spent most of August doing #1 (not trading at all--August trading is the pits), but that has changed.