Marsh 23,2006 Results 5 trades 3 winners 2 losers 6 points profit= $300 Commission = $37.62 Total profit= $262.38
I have not traded yet today. I didn't feel that I had the time to devote to this market today as I felt a move was coming in the Euro FX this morning. My comments on the action so far is that there was a double failure swing on the 3 minute chart at 9:57 EST. This provided a good long entry as it was also breaking from BB at the time. Second there was a doji on the 9:39 EST 3 minute bar that showed the way for the initial downward move . This doji (doji's can be seen on bar charts) was also accompanied by an RSI failure swing at the OB line and a break from BB. Both of these would have been good trades.
There are 2 dojis and a double RSI failure swing existing on the 3 minute chart right now. I will be away from the computer for a while. I will not trade this set up right now as I don't really like the second peak of the RSI as it appears to me currently.
One other item that is of note, at least to me. Over time, I have noticed that there CAN be correlation between the strength of the Euro FX futures and the strength of the ES futures. Seeing the Bullish divergence on the hourly GECM6 chart this morning was also a potential "indicator" of at least initial strength for the ES ie when GECM6 made it's initial surge.
================= Most of the 5 day ES intraday highs are lower; but most of the lows are higher, so exspect more of that untill it proves other wise Longer & medium trends still mostly up; plenty of shorter term polar bear moves .
no trading today for me--I still have the short position build working. What may get me on the day trading is simply the amount of time involved. You can have much more of a life if you position trade. We'll see if I have some time tomorrow. Thanks for the post Murray!! Right now I am seeing a market that is not strong on weekly charts or daily charts , but no real strong signal down or up. If anything , there is a mild short signal with the puny Friday close. and technical weakness. The downside for my position currently is that we are no where near WAY overbought. It appears to me that prices have been drifting higher, not rushing higher. Of course, that could change anytime. I am of the opinion that longer term we are sideways and down, thus the build of the short.
No day trading for me today. Would have been a great day by the looks of it. There was a great long signal in higher RSI lows around 11 AM EST. and then before the FED, we had the indicators weakening and RSI making a double top with the second peak much lower than the first. I chose just to remain with my positional short build today as you know I have a huge short bias in this market. Also, there exists a bearish divergence on continuation charts drawn from the peak of 01/11/06. Both of these peaks then and now also featured failure swings of RSI. The negative aspect to this short position is as it always is, whether we can break through the 20 day. In addition, there is always a negative aspect in this kind of trade in that the masses are intent on buying the dips. This is a market where there exists a predetermined notion of upward bias no matter what the charts say. However, I intend on holding the short position and if the market goes higher, I will build upon that. I am seeing weak technical and lackluster technical trade in the weekly chart as well, thus my build of the short. If we get some downside movement that looks to be heading for a reversal, I may the cover and look to short again or perhaps go long, although I would no be building a long here--it would just be a trade.
================= Buy1sell2; Did take out the weekly lows again, dont ever like to ignore the weekly for short term trading. For those out @ end of day ES still looks like its set up for , for good polar bear moves and good uptrends. Can be upward tendency for first/last weeks of month.
I believe there is a better than 50% chance of a move initially into the 1270 to 1280 area basis ESM6. Of course, we'll need to break the psychological support at 1300. That can't be too engrained in trader's minds just yet. The support has only been there a few days. For those traders who look to MA for the trend, I do understand that the 20 day is up and at a decent angle that trends like. I though am somewhat of a contrarian when I have a view strongly one way which I do now. There are times of course when I get in on the trend, but in this market I am playing for reversal to the downside and using no stops--just adding to my position.