with the amount of stimulus, and political landscape changeout, the market may avert a downturn, since significant bets against the market wont be made till the political landscape can be projected out. the ultimate basis for the bet will be whether profit potential is still intact. Projecting out, technology companies still will be in demand secondary to world buildout. I'm still seeing a lot of sales in housing, the houses are still being sold, in the very high end market they might be building up secondary to 'flippers bailing'...
You might find this article's pictures interesting... http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/15181
This mrkt has run the last decade maybe 15 yrs on the housing boom,and that was a saviour then,take that away and stick a couple 100 million unsold new and unsold foreclosed out there and its like katrina in N.O.,ITS GONNA TAKE A LONG TIME TO CLEAN UP,the gov knows that and is throwing sandbags at it,but its unknown how big this thing is,even if we don't go under,we're definitely not going up from here.. we may go sideways to up til thurs for expiration,but in this last weeks volatility,those option positions should have been shaken down in size
Are we there yet ? After crunching the numbers 1458 is still very probable. Is the r:r worth it for a short ? Maybe for a gambler.
i also bot sds on wednesday, added to position on thursday, took some off the table friday ( banking profits) and letting the rest roll....
ImE that is not entirely so. Shakeouts/squeezes yes. What happens to me very frequently is that I might trade a bullish pattern off 3 minute chart and if I don't adjust position size taking into account wider stop, then I keep stop same as if it were a stop on 1 minute chart's pattern. Pre-determined range expansion analyses allow me to determine potential reward. So, to cut long story short, I get shaken out 1-3 times and IF entry signal is still there I would get a better entry 3rd time round. (At this point T28 decides to post some &^%$) Hence I am of an opinion that a more obvious pattern is often headfaked rather than negated altogether.
When looking for a major move its important to look at the other indices to see if they confirm your outlook. You can see the er2 is in a perfect position to compliment the ES bearish outlook. All it takes is a reversal and on the hourly chart or the 81 minute and I know that the odds are severely reduced.