that whole drop was almost 3,500 contracts over 30 minutes. Not major in AH but I wonder if today was a last gasp before a strong leg down tomorrow. I am short into tomorrow...
looking at MAR contract from the 10:40 Bar Es at 1502.25 to the 11:05 PM bar with ES at 1493 or so. That 9 - 10 point drop happened over 7 5 minute bars with one volume spike of 1,700 but a few spikes of 1,241 and 500 as well. But still late night so I am not gonna track it as much as I will where we are when 7:00 AM comes around..
I still don't see 3500 contracts, my chart shows approx 150, 50, 280, 290, 360, 600, 125, and 375 over the fall. To me this is just a 50% retracment test of previous low to high so that is why I am long and bullish.
I see a rising wedge formed from the Thanksgiving low to the high to Monday which has now popped out to the downside. 3 days of strong selling despite todays late rally to push it back make me think that the buyers will eventually get overrun or burn out trying to buy simply because it is Xmas. I think if the fed is acting so much to deal with a crisis like this, it is more serious than the market is giving it credit for. The fed is simply providing cheaper access to capital and holding down rates so that floating rate payers get a break but the underlying problems still exist. The market wants rate cuts simply because they are good for the stock market without regard to why the fed is having to cut or implies it needs to cut. How can many people talk about slower growth and recession and the market simply go up in defiance? Implies to this humble man that another brutal sell off can occur which might force bulls hand and we get another 4 bar gap and run like mid NOV. Or I could be way off...