You raise a good question, because I see the same thing. I am not taking this trade, though, and here's why: 1. I already took the spring early in the hour (profitable). Nevertheless, the rebound was rather weak (I would have liked to have seen at least 34, but it backed off well before). That suggests weakness. If it cannot challenge the hourly high, then there is more downside, usually. 2. One rule I use is no more than one spring an hour. The second breakout in the same hour is more likely to be real. 3. The fact that the spring was a challenge of the previous day's low interested me, but I passed. I'm not here to lose money.
a couple of weeks ago, I posted a daily chart showing a shoulder, a head (which I felt was a double top =DT), and the right shoulder. I have not changed those designations on the chart, and the initial downtrend lines have not been altered. Since that posting, a declining wedge has formed. the lower (support) line of that wedge if just about 1416 for today.
Long @ 2150 Riding this one out to somewhere near 4000 **edit** Actually, make that 3700. Some newbie prediction.
I've noticed that no one here is trading YM. For those that stay away from YM, what are the reasons why you don't like it vs. ES?
Long XLF here ($28.41) waiting for another break on ES may not get it. My understanding of YM future is that the liquidity is not as deep so that if you drop more than 100 contracts you start moving the markets, just my $.02.
Sold the NDX Dec 2025 straddle at 139.00 at ~30% vol. Sold NQ at 1998 // Sold Dec 1900P at ~36 [35% vol]; 1:1.
If we can get back up to 1425 from here, we will have confirmed a picture-perfect IHS bottom: 22, 25, 18, 25, 22. I am long from 1421.75 here.
Duration wise, it's too damn short to carry any substantial weight, dontcha think? Or am I missing something? Can you whip out a chart, please.