My short from 1463 is finally overwater again. It was a bad trade -- way too early -- but it's a good example of B1S2's theory that if you trade with the trend, time is on your side.
H&S negated by most recent pop. However, I'm seeing bearish divergence on multiple timeframes: 3min, 5min, 15min. OTOH, 60min looks bullish. Daily and longer look bearish.
This "big picture" view may help reconcile the bullish 60-min chart with the bearish charts on other timeframes. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1676228 width=800> Click on link below for higher-res image. Given this picture, my short entry from 1463 was certainly less than optimal.
My view is that it is best here to have the hourly top out and give a short signal. I don't disagree with the downside bias, I just disagree with timing here.
Yeah, even I disagree with the timing here. Had I looked at the "big picture" chart earlier, I certainly wouldn't have entered short where I did. I may well wind up bailing from that trade at a small loss and re-entering at a better place.
Now there is certainly bearish divergence on the 15 minute. I still believe it to be a safer play to wait for the hourly here.