I just take random samples and subtract them, problem is the futures will often overshoot cash on extreme moves so you have to be careful.
Anyone notice the rather large size on the ES book today? In the morning it looked like spoofing, but all afternoon ES was 2000/3000 up (with size posted behind), and the orders were trading.
Noted. Compare 8/03 to 8/04 though... thats what I'm looking for. Closed on the low on 8/03, then fell another 5.45 points on 8/04 before reversing hard. Todays low minus 5.45 puts the SPX at 1526.55... premium adjusted = 1430 on the ES. Not saying this will happen, just trying to look to history for predictions.
Yes, but today is Tuesday night, not friday night. You can not use a scenario where there is a 2 day break between trading and say it is the same as m-t. I am not saying it is not possible, but the probability is not high for reversing after closing at the days lows.
Initially, there will be a band of delusional optimists lining up behind 1430 to prop up the price, but once they're all shot dead the market will quickly head lower to the 1410 area. Eventually ES will retest the low registered on 08/16. Don't be naive in thinking that this market is heading back up anytime soon. Saxon, I have no doubt you're an astute trader with many years of experience. But it appears that you can still use some help when it comes to technical analysis. I suggest that you check this nightly Youtube market analysis to bring you back on track. Unlike other "educational" TA garbage floating around the web, this guy is a straight shooter who's definitely worth checking out. http://www.youtube.com/user/inthemoneystocks