ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

I disagree about the notion of going down after the minutes. There has been enough really bad news today that FOMC stuff will give the market a leg up. Also, I think some guys are already buying (hence the print of 1453) because they know the general sentiments that are in those notes. Time will tell. 3 more minutes till the statement appears.

 

My amateurish outlook is that ES will end the day near 1440.

 

My hat to you for the earlier prediction.

As for that 1440, I hope you are wrong.

 

Anybody else see a H&S bottom building on the daily cash?

 

Good call.

Short from 49.50, SL 50.25, T1 43.75 (too late in the day for much more)

 

To speak tongue in cheek, the actual target lies at or near 1435.

 

For anyone who ever remotely wants to start trading with a trend around here.
***
Here's a graph.

The time frame is 3 minutes.
It has a 200 period Simple Moving Average.
It has a CCI Histogram.

You sell the rallies when the price is below the 200 SMA, and buy the the dips when the price is above the 200 SMA. When the market is choppy you don't do anything.
***
There's my contribution to the system development part of the thread.

Do I still trade like this? No, this is something I used about 3 years ago when I was getting serious about trading, and after studying Woodie's CCI system (free PDF at the website).

Even though I don't trade like this anymore, as you can see from the graph, the system still works.

Good trading,

Jimmy Jam

P.S. Not once today has the market given a "Buy Signal" regardless of the system you are using ...

 

Well my countertrend system JUST gave me a buy signal. The problem I have is I don't know it is going to be a trending day until it is too late. Since trending days only occur 30% of the time I am ok, but when they do occur, I lose my butt.

 

The market started off with massive selling according to the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, Bankers, TRIN and VXO, and never abatted. That information coupled with any type of trend following tool (like the 200 period SMA), told me that I had to look for minor rallies to Short or to abstain from trading ...

... there's no point in going Long in this type of environment, the probabilities of it ending in profit are extremely low.

Good trading,

Jimmy Jam

P.S. According to your post, your system "wins" 70% of the time ... and the other 30% of the time you "lose your butt"? Unless you have really creative money management, it sounds like it just about breaks-even.

 

I agree. I just have to recognize these type of days quicker and adjust my style.