TY! I don't use RSI as I find histogram provides all that is required, ImO histogram prevails over RSI. Histogram, from a pure visual analyses, creates a lot more clear cut signals, it has just 1 centerline that establishes possible POINT of change in direction, whereas RSI can be traded using multi methodical approaches and it hasn't got that ONE point ie like centerline in histogram's case. ImO RSI is a bit vague :eek: ImO there will be a lot of shorting around 1500 whatever the pattern at the time.
Thanks for the chart, JSSPMK. Years ago I studied whether the number of stocks (NYSE) hitting new lows as a percentage of Total issues traded was predictive of anything. -Yes, it is. When that percentage is greater than 30% (as was the case on Thursday, 8/16/07, the next day has been a gainer every single time (based on SPX cash). AND, this potentially ties into your chart analysis, JSSPMK, lows (as Measured by SPX cash will get retested). no time schedule for this. (in 87 it took 5 weeks) Anytime the number of new 52 week lows/total issues traded is above 20%, means retest also, unfortunately, no time schedule. I came onto the Journal this morning to read the posts from the time I shut-off my machines yesterday and who do I see posting, JSSPMK and mbusch. (Have learned much from both of you, Thanks). But I have this news flash for you. Markets are closed.
93% according to spreadsheet for 12 months. ES is the market of choice. Most of what i use was learned on ES journal.
if u can't make money with 1 contract u can't make money. for most, if u don't have high accuracy mechanical system ur psyche won't allow u to be in business long term. buy dips sell rallies with the trend....the trend is recognized by higher lows higher highs vice versa. ..... if you don't know what the next bar brings how can you think ur way to success...thinking is for system development..then thinking is trap for losers...mechanical signal is only correct answer for intraday emini traders...the market only runs and chops/whipsaw..........only....both are trends....sideways is a trend....find the "safe" stops ...they are always same....if u don't have an edge don't trade....an edge is what allows u to capture positive points consistently. u will either sacrifice a lot in this business or you won't be one of the few...
Thanks for clearing it up Spec. I was just interested because a 200 lot is nearly a 15 mil position. If you are using ES to hedge, then why do you reverse and double your long exposure ? The standard rule on this thread has been to post both entries and exits and I think that is why some were confused from your posts.
over the years you realize that being stubborn is the thing that can kill many trading careers. I've seen it happen in very experienced traders, where the market just keeps moving through their positions. All it takes is a momentary psychological fatigue point. any system you adopt has to have a inherent R:R, risk:reward, I like the moving average systems since it keeps me on the right side of the current direction. The drawback is that a gap up or gap down of multiple points can lead to significant chop losses. there is a trick to mitigate this, its geometric quantity progression as the session progresses. If your trading 1, the next progression with 2,4,8,16,32,64...etc. Meaning as the session progresses, the last decision will tend to be the confiming move. This reduces the cost of chop, and when a breakout occurs you will be weighted more on the breakout. everday should have a loss limit, meaning if you hit that loss limit for the day, you stop trading. No hopes and dreams. So a active hedge, if I'm long a basket of stocks, and don't intend to liquidate for a few weeks. One can adopt a active hedge system. The active hedge system, tries to protect against a countertrend in the position. But at the same time while doing it, there is a cost basis associated with it. To recoup the cost basis, a trend position on the hedge is taken also. So the equity exposure represents a long term swing position, while the futures represents a short term intraday system. This short term intraday system can be traded on its own, but it only works during volatile times, since the cost basis of chop will be less then the trend basis. Once the market is out of the woods, the active hedge system can be stopped. And the swing position can be left alone, and sold into premium build up. The premise of all this is that volatility leads to downward movement and less volatility leads to upward drift in equities. And some have noticed, less volume leads to upward drift. Sorry for the confusion, and I violated my rule of posting quantities. Its not good form to do such things on public boards. I don't win every trade, and I have multiple loosers. But my W:L is average is higher then most. At times I get cocky and let positions run against me, with a mental stop, and this can be quite dangerous. A small loss can turn into a very exceptional large loss. Chris