ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Mar 2, 2006.

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  1. two possible scenarios...it could go down or up. =)

    it doesn't take much to bring it down, its up to the bigboys. USD/JPY will head back to 120. The japanese housewives are very quick to rebound, with some BOJ help.

    Different metrics of fear seem to be unwinding.

    The old trends seem to be coming back in forex, dollar bearish. Oil headed back up.

    So the question becomes, why did the market trend down most of the day? Was it some big funds unloading positions that they accumulated on the run up?

    Or was it, new short positions being taken for a test of the lows. If it was a new position to test the lows, the market should have trended down after that transition point at 63. It would have been in the best interest of the morning bears to keep slamming it down. But yet they preserved it, for another day. They had the day nailed.

    Price was propped up during asian session most of the night above 80, and only as US session neared, the bids were removed underneath exposing it to fall, a short position overnight was built up, and you could see it on the price action, whenever net new shorts built up, the stops were run multiple times.

    It was blatantly obvious when price couldn't even manage to test 80 on the RTH open. This was all directed in advance to bring it down.

    Now the question becomes, what will happen tommorrow, some reports out. Durable goods which has been known to move the market. If they wanted to take the market up, they would have moved the market up closer into the 70's. Yet its trading now at mid 60's. It seems to be a directed effort to smash it and test the lows again.
     
    #17781     Aug 23, 2007
  2. lencho

    lencho

    I will be bold enough to play the devil's advocate and take the opposite side of this and firmly say, "NO." lol
     
    #17782     Aug 23, 2007
  3. lencho

    lencho

    Just a thought....I have followed this thread for at least a year and it's fun. Lots of characters here. I never look at it while I'm trading, but sometimes I look back to see what happened. I trade off the ES one minute chart and while I won't give away my 95% method (lol), i can say that there is money to be made out there if you put in the effort. Lately I'm looking at the donkey channels and a buy or short midway between the penetration and high of same bar on one minute chart. Of course this precludes any play into the 40MA. Sounds silly after a while. You just cannot program this stuff. Anyway, forget about all this. 7 points a day is negligible....good trading to all.
     
    #17783     Aug 23, 2007
  4. lencho

    lencho

    OK that post sucked. I meant a penetration of the band. My entry was one part on the penetration and one part on the completion of the bar. It's 2 points these days on stop and target, and don't buy any lows or sell any tops.
     
    #17784     Aug 23, 2007
  5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Could you please post a chart. I am following Spyder's futures journal but like to see how others trade.

    Good trading to all
     
    #17785     Aug 24, 2007
  6. some things to look for if your bullish today.

    1) is price above 68
    2) is price above MA's
    3) is direction of MA's up
    4) is price above the open

    if any of these things aren't true, then 54 is next.

    if these things are true then 84 is next.
     
    #17786     Aug 24, 2007
  7. So either no one uses the DAX or it's double top secret? LOL


     
    #17787     Aug 24, 2007
  8. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    1. It is not important to follow the DAX, when playing the ES.
    2. If anything, the DAX follows the ES when the US markets are open, so you don't gain anything by following the DAX. Now you might play the DAX following the ES....
     
    #17788     Aug 24, 2007
  9. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Quote from Spectre2007:

    two possible scenarios...it could go down or up. =)

    Man, the suspense is killing me...

    So the question becomes, why did the market trend down most of the day? Was it some big funds unloading positions that they accumulated on the run up?


    Nope. It was a sideways day as it was expected and predicted and since we started up, in true fashion we had to go down, pretty much the same level as we were up (+52 vs. -63) on the Dow.

    The day ended as it was supposed to, at unch...
     
    #17789     Aug 24, 2007
  10. When the US markets are closed and the german market opens, the DAX leads ES.

    Anek
     
    #17790     Aug 24, 2007
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