In this journal, I started the discussion with the overactivity of a failed countertrend daytrader who needs to add to positions to bring in profits. (Note--I would then let them run to capture full reward, not just one point per contract). Then I moved through divergences and grails. Then, we discussed profit targets versus letting it run as well as the disadvantages of scaling in/out. After that, I then introduced filtering out one side of the equations ie long or short based upon longer term analysis, regardless of whether or not longer term is weekly, monthly, hourly or 5 minutes. As we went along, I always advocated stops that would not reduce your account my more than 2 percent of a trader's total liquid net worth and included discussion about stops being outside of noise. What I am getting at here, is that my method has been described fairly well inside of this journal if you discount the initial premise of trading countertrend and adding, which is not the way to go. It should be apparent to all by now that I identify a trend, and I then exploit that trend by using full position in the direction of the trend with entries on shorter frame charts. Suffice it to say, that the trend was down all day Friday until the long signal at 3 PM EST which then allowed me to take long signals . Finally, I would tell you that we are currently in an uptrend today which can change at any time.
risk is Bernie moves today...for a FED Funds cut. its very hard to cover 10,000 lot blocks..when no sellers appear.
1457 target.. I wont be making anymore trades from the short side till the FED makes a decision. When the cut does appear, a sharp rally about 50 points higher or so on the spooz to 1500, then the risk is gone for the shorts. Then massive selling to bring it down and test the bottom at 1376.
Thank you for the lengthy explanation and I am still looking for specificity. Let me explain. If I were to review all my all my trades over the past year there would be many aspects to those trades just as there are many to yours. What I was asking you was about the present and not the past. A perfect example is in your last post. You state: âSuffice it to say, that the trend was down all day Friday until the long signal at 3 PM EST which then allowed me to take long signals.â The question I would ask is what long signal did you use to indicate a trend change from down to up? Itâs quite apparent what your general premise is (down to up) and as far as I can tell there is no indication of what precipitated a trend change or how in fact you made that assessment. Was it based on divergence? If so, where do you see it? Was it based on a reversal bar? If so, which bar? Etc. DMartin
the faster the FED moves, the better the possibility they avert a disaster. As more time passes, the system gets constrained.
OK, since nobody says anything, I will... You must have suspended space/time continuity since Friday morning, or one of us is drunk. Don't drink and post!
actually drinking mk's hard lemon... discount rate cut is not the same thing as FED Funds, who would have thought FED would cut Friday?... so the possibility of a cut before a meeting that is about a months away.. is higher then normal, considering how the FED is behaving.
B1S2 has done an excellent job of describing at least three different approachs or trading philosophies to the market which can be used to make money (despite his dislike of counter-trend add-on trading, Saxon22's got the algo pretty much nailed). If you want the specific application of his techniques I would recommend you do the following: 1. Spend a several weekends (a month should get the job done) pouring over the ES Journal, while also studying his other writings, after which you'll have to apply the method for the next six months to integrate it into your trading personality. 2. Take a general trading approach that he has mentioned and use it to build a system around it (this may also take a substantial amount of time depending on your current level of knowledge and trading expertise, but heh, it can't be helped). Good trading, JJ
the price action is indicating sellers are scared. even with a small discount buyers are stepping in. Yet buyers don't want to pay a premium.
Jimmy Jam: I have been trading for 20 years mostly in prop firms and now at my home. I'm not so much interested in integrating a new approach (though not opposed to it either) as much as looking at specific real time trades that are called out and understanding the premise of those trades. If one states the trend is down and then the trend is up in retrospect then I don't see why the specific analysis of that trade cannot be included rather than informing me to go back through 3000 post to figure out what could have taken a sentence or two. DMartin