I am guessing the wave man is excited about the continuation pattern on the emini, up 11 points. His last post was "see you at $1502.00". Caveat guessor.
This is true when it comes to SPY and big-cap stocks (in the S&P, of course). Countertrend strategies tend to work rather well: buy dips in an uptrend, and sell rallies; sell rallies in a downtrend, and buy back when it dips. The 200 day simple moving average is one way to define trend. There is a problem with taking Prof Steenbarger's argument too far. The reality is that not all stocks act like SPY. Small-cap stocks act rather differently. Buying dips in a speculative stock can be dangerous; on those, buying on strength would be a better strategy. At least acc to my own backtesting. A system that I have written works wonders with S&P 500 stocks loses big, big money with the stocks of unproven companies (most small cap companies never become big caps). As this applies to the ES, it is pretty clear, and I have said it here before: if the market has declined in the near term, look for a place to buy the next day. Don't just buy because the previous day was down, but get ready, if the opportunity presents itself. Over the past two weeks, buying morning weakness after bad news the previous day or overnight (look for the "Black Monday" or "Black other dotw" threads here) has been lucrative.
Just took a look at the most recent decline and saw that it reached the largest decline since 2003.... just as expected and was calling for. I think lower prices are still to come though.. We are at a pretty critical point this upcoming week. Market is trying to put in a DB on the daily and inverse H&S on the lower timeframes. The high at 1468.50-1470 is very critical. If they(the market) can take that out we could easily get a retest of the july high setting up for a weekly double top. However, my gut tells me they want to get down to 1425 first... they got close with 1433 but I am not convinced it was enough. I am in the bear camp until they can take out the 1468.50 high and sustain it for at least 60 minutes. If this happens, I will close 75% of my remaining shorts from the July highs and reasses when things become more clear. My targets for these remaining shorts are 1400-1405 and ultimate target at 1340-1350 where if it ever gets down there I will look at taking a long position for a massive longer term rally. Here is an updated chart from the one posted a few weeks ago...
Before... http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1542833 Looking better and better every week... After...
Welcome home, hombre! Your chart shows a resistance zone of 1455-1464, and that zone has just been penetrated to the upside in AH trading. (Glad to say I'm long.) I would not be surprised to see a run of buy stops that takes us up to 1468 soon. (It's about time for the 3am ET fireworks.) Comments? EDIT: Or perhaps not. ES just bounced quite smartly off resistance at 1464.50, and dropped 2.5 points. It's now taking another run at 1464.50, and we'll should soon see if we get a run of buy stops or a double top. EDIT: Broke 1464.50 to the upside, hopefully headed higher (in AH).
Closed long for a modest +2. Now short from 1464 with 1.5-point stop. RSI and MACD historgram divergence suggest down from here, although one more high above 1465.25 is certainly possible.
Glad to be back... The 1455-1465 was an old support zone from a daily chart.. it had a nice 35 point move off it when it was first touched then managed to get below it. I was just posting the chart showing the price action that occured following. Nice Trade