I trade countertrend, too, so I cannot say that I disagree entirely with your approach. The super-high leverage would concern me, because it takes only a small losing streak (statistically a guarantee) to wipe out a number of hard-earned profits. Plus one should also take into account Murphy's Law: there HAVE been times when Globex is down, and one cannot get out of the ES (hedge with YM, in that case, but many don't know that); computers break in the middle of trading days; brokerages sometimes are not up and running. My point? Expect the unexpected. I tend to be careful, because I have seen many others who weren't, not be around.
LOL, Saxon22 is a New Yorker. Outside of some conversation and jousting back-and-forth, he ain't really try'in to tell you noth'in ... but he's given enough information (with his months of posting) so that you or anyone else with the time, some good charts and the ability to run automated trading simulations could pretty much figure-out what he does and how, and then you could just run your computer simulations to see what the risk of blowing-out was. Good trading, JJ P.S. BTW, off the top of my head, I'd say that on any give trade, he probably has a 80% chance of ultiamtely succeeding ... so his statement of blowing-out once a month sounds good (he's improved his odds slightly, but cannot totally exorcise risk with this method). And the fact that he admits it, shows that he's being pretty upfront with us here.
I dont know the exact similarities but wasn't this a similar situation after september 11 with everyone doubting the Fed intervention. The market rallied for 4 months after that before really kneeling over.
yeah.......precisely the risk for those leaning on the price. With a FED friendly, October might shape up to be a nice.
I KNEW IT! (not that there's anything wrong with that) I'm from Philly, originally. When I go back, it's like going into an entirely different world.