For the benefit of those who only visit occasionally, I will post my translation as I had to look it up. Alpha above refers to: Goldmanââ¬â¢s Global Alpha fund down
I always found it incredibly ironic that they had the arrogance to name their fund "alpha" and that the fund is now providing submarket returns.
With most of the market being hedge-fund versus hedge-fund these things are invevitable. Somebodies gotta be underperforming if somebody is outperforming... so whos up 20% YTD?.... although it is kinda nice to see some of the smartest guys in the world down BIG $$$
negative statement minefields for the rest of the week. BNP Paribas if they start talking more throughout the day... will lead to knee jerk reactions. Have to wait for these boys to go to sleep, then the batton for negative news will be handed over to Goldman.
Spectre2007, Have you summarized your take on direction in the ES/YM for the next several days? You and many others on here are always insightful. Thanks in advance.
Here's the predominant algo at work the past few days. Newswires have to be kept open now these days more then ever. The markets been doing knee jerk reactions down 20 points quickly when news comes out, then those initial sellers start covering when news stops lingering. The covering continues till another spate of news comes out, then bam another 20 points. So basically, if the news is over for the time being the predominant risk is up. Means more people are short then long, since nonreactionary movement gives clues to the underlying global position bias risks. If you get multiple salvos of news througout the session, the sentiment becomes locked. And the next session starts new again with covering taking place. Taking all this together, it means capitalization is being recycled. If your a 10 billion dollar hedge fund, and you are short maximum amount for that derivatives that your models will allow, your forced to cover to raise capitalization, to short at the next cyclical high. Edit: ECB just added liquidity, geeze, atleast the ECB is proactive instead of our stoic FED. Take a day without news, and see what the market does, if the market moves up, shows you the underlying trend risks.
I'm extremely bearish on the market and the macro economic views. The government coffers are empty, and the poor are getting poorer, and the rich, richer. I sense a 1929 style set of circumstances. But even with these views, my trading is not biased and is systemized.
The ECB responded to a rise in overnight rates. The Fed will similarly add liquidity to keep the funds rate at the target of 5.25%. (Funds opening at 5.5%) .. in fact, they have already added reserves.