Well, in order to be profitable, I need to go against the trend. So far it has been working. Maybe because the market never goes straight up or straight down forever. As for that inevitable loss ... it will happen and the key is to be able to control it.
Don't like price action here, so closed out add-on at a two-tick loss, and will wait for a better point to re-enter short. Still holding initial short with breakeven stop (1501.00).
I never said that I am as good as some of you guys. Quiet the contrary. However, so far this is the only way that I know how to extract $$$ from ES. So far, it is working. if I knew how to do it your way, I would have switched in a heart beat, but I do not (hence the comment of driving blind being so accurate).
Personally, I wouldn't sell a risk-reversal into a bear-projection. I won't get into the specifics, but you lose on skew as well as strip if you're wrong. I would suggest one or the other, but not both. However, buying a risk-reversal into a rally will often outperform equal deltas in futures, and you'll lose on strip but gain on skew in the bull reversal. I like selling the ES Aug 1510 call here at $10.50/17%. I also like the 1450/1510 strangle neutral at 1480 for $16.00. Skew neutral [today] at 1490.