I am not suggesting to become a channel trader. Unless that is how YOU trade YOUR system. I am saying "Don't swing for the fence." If you want to pick tops and bottoms, you are swinging FOR the fence... Life as a daytrader will be short-lived, according to probability.
This has been my viewpoint as well, but I am looking to pick up some insight from Osorico on the channels. I am curious as to how he catches trends when taking a somewhat predetermined profit. Maybe I am misunderstanding his idea. Anything you can offer here Spike is certainly welcome.
For me, there is something comforting about the "Closed PnL" column. And there's nothing wrong with re-entering (or adding) to a trade with another signal. The topic really is YOUR style, YOUR signals, YOUR trade/money management. What works for me (or anyone else for that matter) likely won't work for you. Especially since you have predeterminations of how things work. Besides, If I tell you I'd have to kill you and then myself. Osorico BTW: I've been short YMM6 since 088... the BREAKDOWN of what you are calling a channel. It's been my only trade today. With an ultimate target of about 005. Will it get there, I don't know. Will I let a majority of profit evaporate... no f'n way!
Nice call. BTW, rollover days can be a bit disorienting for indicator-based traders - especially because of the way most data-providers patch up the two contracts. Good luck.
day 6 results 8 trades 3 winners 5 losers profit .25 pt =$12.50 Total commission=$87.78 Net loss= $75.28
============= With reasonable position size, might do better over time with those; even though ES & underlying stocks are still uptrending fairly well./medium/long term trend. Weekly trend favors polar bears some. However as Spike500 was hinting about ES probabilities; sounds better on options. Besides many trade/buy options like I hunt gamebirds; they hope to get meat, but trade mainly for fun, which favors you.
You took the important moves, but you also took too many losing trades and too big losses per trade. Perhaps try to analyse your signals better and only take the very clear signals. You give back to much in your losing trades. My system filtered two shorts and one long. So 5 trades less than you did. But i made money thanks to the fact that the three trades were profitable. I also NEVER take a loss bigger than 2 points.