Day 5 results--- 2 trades 1 winner 1 loser Profit 1.75 pts = $87.50 Total commission=$18.81 Net profit= $68.69 Busy with other things today and missed a couple of good setups. I may just not trade on those days when I am going to be too busy to be attentive to the market.
but no matter how you define a trend - it will never tell you that the trend is going to continue - so you can't compare it to the streaming water - come what may.
i believe he wasn't trying to make a direct comparison. When swimming, would you swim against the flow hoping the flow will reverse? probably not. When trading if you take a position against the trend, it's quite risky to assume that market will reverse, unless your signals tell you that it's actually happening.
Yes it can tell me with a high accuracy that the trend will continue. He warns me when the situation becomes dangerous. So it's like hearing the Niagara Falls 5 miles before you reach them. Time to get out of the water. After all that's the only usefull indicator: one that warns in advance for danger.
you obviously don't understand. that's exactly what i pointed out - HOW do you know, what the trend is going to be in the near future? you never know - the trend can change in every second.
whatever you use - if it works - fine. after all - anything that gives you some feeling (illusion) of certainty for your entry/trade can help.
============ romik; 1st] This is not a prediction, but animals do act very strange, before an earthquake, wasn't an eyewitness, but believe it happened in that earthquake in Tennessee; where the Mississippi river backed up/flowed backwards. 2] People with market maker/specialist personality can & should trade more frequently than me; so tend to stay out of opening -earthquake/first minute moves. 3.3]So as long as you have you stop planned, we don't call trends predictions, thats wisdom, or expect river to flow back normally. 4]Counter Trends & trends are about probabilities; like the probabilities of entering underlying stock last hour for position/swingtrade , hardly ever enter a short term trade last half hour.[2 ;30 chicago time] Last half hour derivative entry may or likely may not be enough ''flow'' for me [that pattern could possibly change]; maybe enough flow to exit @ end of day. Not a prediction, simply some probabilitys.
Gotta watch them T days, Usually if the market closes strong or closes weak, it will carry into at least the first 30 min- 1 hr of the following day unless some news occurs. There are times when this does not happen, but the odds are not in our favor to try to figure out when.