I made ChatGPT create a summary of my own notes of Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator. I specified that I wanted practical trading advice and ChatGPT suggested to narrative details and background events. Very good. Let's proceed with that, ChatGPT. It's all there. I don't think anything else is required to speculate successfully. But, knowing what to do and actually doing it is not the same and even Livermore himself struggled with his own demons. This quote is relevant to recent discussion: Trend overrules logic: “Not even a world war can keep the stock market from being a bull market when conditions are bullish, or a bear market when conditions are bearish.” The main current often overrides news or fundamentals; markets ignore bad news in bull runs and good news in bear phases. The operator’s task is not to argue but to align. - Trade with the trend: “Be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market.”
My reply to this would be the stock mkt total valuation vs gdp is by the far much greater than those other periods in you charts were stocks went up the rest of yr. No different than the tulip mania . The “paper” value vs the real value of all goods and services is at the highest in history .Theres an incredible article on CNBC.com today. It’s talking about the Ai boom in private equity is the greatest wealth generator in the last 100 yrs. They were showing Ai startups less than 10 months old worth $12 billion . It’s minted 20 or so billionaires this yr. Were talking company’s that just formed less than a yr ago .Right now its like being told you can walk into a bank and the vault is open and take as much money as you want with no consequences . There’s just way too much “paper wealth “ in the system . This is flowing over to other asset prices. Look no further than the housing mkt. Sales are at 20 plus yr lows on real #’s yet prices still at all time highs with mortgage rates still 6.5%. Thats because private equity or the guy stuffed with stock mkt gains will buy your house to diversify his massive stock gains . With this much money in the system asset prices can’t fall ( look at gold and crypto). Technology of the last 25 yrs has produced a generation of fast trading cowboys that want instant gains .
this explains Computer-Driven Traders Are Bullish on Stocks, Humans Are Bears https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...tocks-humans-are-bears?srnd=homepage-americas The two groups look at different cues to form their opinions, so it’s not a shock that they see the market differently. While computer-driven fast-money quants use systematic strategies based on momentum and volatility signals, discretionary money managers are individuals looking at economic and earnings trends to guide their moves. Still, this degree of disagreement is rare — and historically, it doesn’t last long, Thatte said.
My top 3: Trade with the trend, regardless of your opinion or the news. Buy on a rising scale, never average down (big when right, small when wrong) Sitting tight on open profits, swinging for the fences
done for the night. opened long vxu5, and shorted es at open 19.50 and closed with 6 points target 13.