ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. Closed one of my vertical bear spreads at a small profit and added another long single name. Net, my market position is somewhat bearish.

    I was quite surprised by the sharp decline in NVDA and the outperformance of YM. I read NVDA's backlog is about a year. China's apparent progress in AI will likely increase US military spending to meet perceived national security imperatives. Increasing risks of a trade war increases revenue risks of multi-national consumer related companies, which includes many DOW components.

    Still trying to assess recent developments, but I'm having thoughts that RTY may start outperforming YM and ES. Not confident on how NQ will perform relative to other broad indexes at this point.

    I plan to increase long exposure in single names and hedge market risks through intraday scalping as needed according to intraday methodology and establish some level of overnight protection by RTH close through puts or futures.
     
    #721     Jan 27, 2025
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  2. flash crash

    flash crash

    This is me trying to figure out the rules for getting funded and getting paid at most prop firms still in business

    upload_2025-1-27_21-13-3.png

    Thank goodness for Topstep and TradeDay.
     
    #722     Jan 27, 2025
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  3. christhesquid

    christhesquid

    Trade your own money. Problem solved.
     
    #723     Jan 27, 2025
    Jaydom likes this.
  4. The general problem with shorting the stock indices is that even it goes down it's rarely a smooth ride. You'll get those strong counter-moves on the way down, so it's not easy to navigate.

    And I believe that's not a new phenomenon. I recall a Market Wizard who talked about shorting the DotCom bubble and kept getting stopped out on vicious counter rallies.

    In contrast, you can get very smooth uptrends with shallow dips. So, it's always easier to be long during an up trend than short during a down trend.

    Because everyone's a f**king genius in a bull market. :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2025
    #724     Jan 28, 2025
    ubo, NoahA, flash crash and 3 others like this.
  5. Picaso

    Picaso

    Congrats! :fistbump:

    Regardless of what the Fed does tomorrow? :wtf:
     
    #725     Jan 28, 2025
  6. Picaso

    Picaso

    I'm no market wizard, but boy do I get stopped out on counter rallies... :D

    It kind of sucks being right on all 5 positions and end up with the crumbles :banghead:

    Edit: but it beats going bankrupt, so I'll keep pussying-it-out for now
     
    #726     Jan 28, 2025
  7. RXIS

    RXIS

    YM sh 44914

    edit:
    out partial 44904
     
    #727     Jan 28, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  8. Depending on available time today, I'll likely scalp both sides of the market as I expect a trading range today.
     
    #728     Jan 28, 2025
  9. RXIS

    RXIS

    edit: actually it was 44905; hard to post at same time
    Out Partial 44893
     
    #729     Jan 28, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  10. RXIS

    RXIS

    Added at 90
     
    #730     Jan 28, 2025
    Picaso likes this.