ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. Picaso

    Picaso

    Any rationale for this or just a gut feeling?

    As @Buy1Sell2 pointed out, the trend is up...

    Japan seems to have caved in...

    EU still negotiating, we'll see.

    My gut feeling is bearish as hell, but hey, the chart (to me) says up.
     
    broomstick and vztrdr like this.

  2. Agreed on all parts. Although I’m happy to see the Japan deal. When Buffet made some big moves into Japan some months back, I piggybacked and bought some Japanese index funds myself because of him.

    He’s always a little early to the party…
     
    Picaso and vztrdr like this.
  3. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Why do you think that?

    Autos and their parts are the big ticket item in deal. The tariff that we Americans will now pay is 15%.

    The tariff that we Americans pay currently for autos and parts from Mexico and Canada is 25%!!!!!!!!!!

    Oh btw no limit on how much Japan can send us.

    And that $550 billion investment pfft peanuts that ... like all the rest of these announcements may or may not ever actually take place.
     
    Picaso likes this.
  4. Picaso

    Picaso

    OK, it could be worse.

    But, AFAIU, the baseline for most countries (including Japan) was a deal with no general tariff.

    15% baseline tariff is, imho, preposterously high... if I recall correctly the *average* Smoot–Hawley tariff peaked at 20% or so (some were way higher, but many goods had no tariff).

    So this gives their car makers a (not very big) break, but that's it.

    Just my 2 cents, you may see it differently, peace and best trading to all.

    100% agree.
     
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    MOMO ain't there presently. ES crossed 6300 12 trading days ago.

    Maybe it kicks back in gear and crosses 6400 later on? Or maybe it's all she wrote for a while.
     
  6. Picaso

    Picaso

    Hey @vztrdr... care to comment?

    upload_2025-7-23_16-24-15.png

    :D
     
  7. [​IMG]
     
    Picaso likes this.
  8. mervyn

    mervyn

    same voodoo, pump and dump is not working anymore

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/23/trumps-japan-trade-deal-card-was-altered-by-hand.html

    The card on Trump’s desk displays a 10% tariff, in addition to a 15% levy rate on the automotive, pharmaceutical and semiconductor industries. However, Trump said in his Truth Social post only that Japan would face a rate of 15%, without elaborating.

    Below the tariff rate, ”$400B” appears on the board in large lettering. The number four is crossed out, with “500” written above it.

    That seems to reference Japan’s plan to invest in the U.S., which Trump explained in his social media post. But Trump used a different figure in his post than even the altered amount on the card, saying in the post that Japan would invest $550 billion in the U.S.

    Andy Laperriere, head of U.S. policy research at Piper Sandler, said Japanese officials are “describing it differently” when it comes to the investment plan. Japan’s leaders, he said, see the $550 billion figure as a cap and inclusive of government loan guarantees.
     
  9. Picaso

    Picaso


    https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/about-that-japan-deal
     
  10. mervyn

    mervyn

    Picaso likes this.