Very funny - and yet all of it true: https://bsky.app/profile/justinwolfers.bsky.social/post/3lqgat6xj3t2l
Here’s the psychology of price action going on right now . The mkt just rallied 23%.Many stubborn shorts got burned hard just believing a big bear mkt had started . But a new crop of shorters have arrived wanting their glory “shorting the top”. But because we just had a massive run off the April lows theirs a lot of excitement from bottom fishers who killed it long . So every drop we get bottom fishers are all over it as the gamble has paid off enourmously the last weeks with bounces every time . At the same time shorters are trembling and quickly covering shorts after any fast drop . This quick shorting covering to lock in fast profit and an army of bottom fishers buying the dip is causing explosive moves back up after sell offs like yesterday’s action. So shorts like yesterday watched their profits evaporate fast . So know they’ll also cover quick the next time saying “screw it i want my profit”. All the meantime as this back and forth action near the top is happening 95% of the mkt which is longer term stock holders is doing nothing and sitting on massive profits the past 4-8 weeks . So until those massive profits of the last 2 months are threatened with at least 5% plus down move getting them worried about “ giving it all back” this will continue . Were going threw some Trump fatigue now were his offlandish quick tweets are moving the mkt less in total price and the effects last much less time . Yesterday is a perfect example .So in reality what Trump threatens has much less effect than 4-8 weeks ago . For instance now to get sustained downside from Tariff’s we must see actual inflation show up in real data whiche we haven’t yet . Even the bond mkt which several times as appeared to be breaking out to 4.7-5% has been stopped in its tracks and fizzles back down to 4.4%. As always the bond mkt is key . For the mkt to fall hard we need a move to 4.8% or above or very recessionary economic data .
Lets face it Chris... your calls on this thread have been... (I'll be polite)... far from stellar. fwiw