ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. Picaso

    Picaso

    Today was a bit lame.

    500 USD per contract in 30 seconds... (and today the actual inventories were almost right on target)

    They have oil inventories in 30 minutes or 1 hour and 30 minutes (depending on the website, it should be 30 minutes, maybe they changed it because you know who).

    As for energy, yes, I've been placing multiple shorts on oil between 76 and 77, but while I'm being lucky with the entries (it moves almost immediately in my favor), I keep getting stopped out at BE (I move to BE after 25 ticks). It's intended as a swing trade and I'm targetting around 68 (not 100% sure about the target, that's why I asked @mervyn, who I understand is one of the few on this forum that trades oil).

    My other trade these days is short JPG (Japanese bonds), but I'm giving up for now since tomorrow is rate announcement day. Will retry next week once FOMC and ECB rate decision are out of the way. I'm not trying to gamble on the news, but rather get a good entry and hold for weeks/months (if my nerves can hold, that is :D) for a x2 or x4 the margin (on the position, not on the whole account, that is).
     
    #571     Jan 23, 2025
  2. SPX green - just like ordered by the orange man.

    "It's a matter of national security."

    Cool. How you feel about short term trading of energy versus indices? Moving almost immediately in your favor sounds nice.

    Back in the day as I'm sure you remember 'everyone' was trading CL as the indices were literally dead. At least on this board, it seems like most futures traders are focusing on indices these days and since they move fairly well it seems like a good choice compared to back in the day when both volatility and nominal index values were low.
     
    #572     Jan 23, 2025
    RXIS and Picaso like this.
  3. Picaso

    Picaso

    Yesterday's high is 6135? If that pops, we're going to new ATH, imho.
     
    #573     Jan 23, 2025
  4. Felt pretty sure about that yesterday, but since we opened lower I'm less certain. Unless the orange man says something to spook the market it still seems possible, though. :)
     
    #574     Jan 23, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  5. Have a moderate confidence long setup on ES with initial buy around 6114. Target entry subject to change as day progresses.
     
    #575     Jan 23, 2025
    Picaso and Laissez Faire like this.
  6. Picaso

    Picaso

    upload_2025-1-23_16-53-6.png

    This is based on overnight margins in Interactive Brokers - probably a world away from the margin that most people use here.

    So, as you can see, for my broker, in the last 14 days or so (I update this a couple of times a week), oil and Chinese stock market give you the least bang for your (my) buck. Lately euro would give you the best (weeks ago it was the JPY).

    But it all depends on what margins you need/use. And this fluctuates, of course.

    Anyway, I'm trying to move to a higher time frame, or at least diversify time frames. So I can make money in my sleep, not just in front of the screen - or at least that's the dream :D
     
    #576     Jan 23, 2025
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  7. far from impressive trade/timing, but taking profit here.
    upload_2025-1-23_16-4-5.png
     
    #577     Jan 23, 2025
  8. nice timing!
    I took a similar trade on the futures account but closed too early
    upload_2025-1-23_16-5-39.png

    ps - still long and losing on the overnight NQ trade on the spreadbet account.
     
    #579     Jan 23, 2025
  9. Nice comparison. I would have expected a larger bang for the buck on NQ, but as it's a function of margin that might explain it.

    Moving on to higher time frames sounds nice. That said, I'm spending even more time on trading after I did that. LOL.
     
    #580     Jan 23, 2025
    Picaso likes this.