no, because the folks own this country will have another jfk moment if he fucks up, and more than half will cheer. right now 1t interest on 37t debt, blended rate about 2.7%. refinance 6t this summer at 4-5%, blended rate would be 3%+. 1.13t projected debt service next year, about 16% of budget. lot of numbers to shallow.
Today, ES is trying to break the record to achieve the smallest day range. President Trump needs to send a powerful twitt to wake up the market.
LOL. Right back at you. I haven't seen one post from you suggesting you have the faintest clue about anything which relates to the markets. Only hindsight criticism and cheap talk.
The Deficit Is Unsettling Bond Traders. Here’s How That Affects the Economy. Story by Nick Timiraos • 34m • 4 min read Yields on the 30-year Treasury bond closed Wednesday at their highest since October 2023.© Samuel Corum/Bloomberg News An economy facing possible indigestion from big increases in tariffs now is contending with a second headwind: potential fallout from a rise in government borrowing costs. Congressional Republicans and the White House have plowed ahead with a package of tax cuts designed to shore up the economy and soothe jitters about the hit from tariffs. But the cost of the tax bill could be adding to investor concerns over perpetually high budget deficits. Longer-dated government bonds sold off on Wednesday after a lackluster auction for 20-year securities and as House Republicans put the finishing touches on President Trump’s tax-and-spending package. Yields rise as bonds fall. The 30-year bond yield closed Wednesday at 5.089%, the highest since October 2023. Bonds initially resumed their selloff on Thursday morning after GOP lawmakers successfully passed the tax bill through the House, with the 30-year yield climbing above 5.1% to its highest level since 2007. But markets recovered and yields edged lower in afternoon trading—offering a reprieve from a selloff that first gained steam on Monday, after Moody’s stripped the U.S. of its triple-A credit rating at the end of last week. The 30-year yield closed Thursday at 5.063%, and the 10-year yield was 4.551%. If the tax bill increases the deficit, the government will have to sell more bonds to plug the gap between spending and revenue. And that, in turn, means sustained higher rates. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stressed his focus on keeping the 10-year Treasury yield down given how many corporate and consumer borrowing costs are tied to longer-dated yields. Yields can rise because investors see prospects of stronger growth—a “good” reason for higher yields. But they can also climb if global investors are nervous about the ability of the U.S. to sustain large deficits. “Just like with the tariffs last month, we are about to find out what level of bond yields and the S&P 500 are necessary for Trump and Congress to course-correct on what is completely unsustainable fiscal policy,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. Figures from the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan referee, forecast that the GOP tax bill would push deficits to around 7% of gross domestic product in the coming years, an unprecedented amount of borrowing for a peacetime economy with a low unemployment rate. The CBO expects the bill could provide about $280 billion in stimulus next year, or around 0.9% of GDP, mostly because of lower taxes. That would largely offset the possible hit from higher tariffs on imports. Congressional Republicans and the White House say the CBO figures are overstating deficits by failing to account for how other policies, including tariffs and deregulation, will boost revenue and economic activity. They say the stronger growth that results will more than recoup any forgone revenue from lower tax rates, meaning no net increase in borrowing. But markets have focused increasingly on the lack of any sustained efforts to bring spending and revenue into closer balance. “What we are learning is that there will be no material fiscal consolidation. The U.S. will continue to run extremely large deficits as far as the eye can see…with bigger deficits the next time we experience a downturn or emergency,” said Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI. Some economists say U.S. fiscal policy isn’t solely responsible for the recent selloff in bonds. Longer-dated sovereign debt yields are rising across Europe and in Japan. The latter has seen a notable selloff in recent days. But several analysts are uneasy. The administration’s projection that tax cuts will cover their costs isn’t plausible and doesn’t account for a possible slowdown because of the effects of higher tariffs, said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a Republican economist and former CBO director. He supports a handful of new business tax provisions and extending the 2017 tax cuts. “The rest is junk, charitably,” he said. “I think there is a real chance this does nothing, or makes the problem worse.” In the debt-heavy real-estate industry, whatever benefit businesses might enjoy from lower tax rates could be completely swamped by a sustained rise in borrowing costs, said Willy Walker, chief executive of commercial real-estate lender Walker & Dunlop. “They are presenting a very stiff headwind” that could weaken property values, said Walker. “And if there’s anyone who understands that equation perfectly, it’s Donald Trump.” Andy Laperriere, head of U.S. policy research at Piper Sandler, said he regularly fields questions from clients over whether Congress would alter its plans if the 10-year Treasury yield hit and remained around 5%. “No chance,” he said in a report this week. The Trump administration swept into Washington promising to tackle deficits with a new Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk. At one point, officials suggested trillions of dollars in spending cuts could lead to thousands of dollars in rebates to U.S. taxpayers. They have since narrowed those ambitions. The consensus of a policy conference Piper Sandler hosted in Washington last week was that DOGE would be a “nothingburger in terms of genuine budget savings” and that Trump and Congress wouldn’t tackle the deficit in a material way without a crisis to force action, said Laperriere, who in the 1990s worked as a GOP policy adviser on Capitol Hill. “Trump has no appetite to tackle entitlement programs, and Republicans in Congress are less concerned about the deficit than a decade ago despite it being materially worse,” he said. Write to Nick Timiraos at Nick.Timiraos@wsj.com
FreddiMac 30yr up 5 basis points to 6.86% So not a 7 handle just yet. Lowest level for the year was 6.62% week after so-called Liberation Day. Unless economy takes a real nose-dive very quickly very soon, homebuyers not likely to see 6.62% the rest of the year. Maybe not for years to come the way the trend is headed.