Please forgive my verbose reply. I am writing to you and to the large audience of viewers in this thread. My top of mind thinking on this market is related to monetary, sentiment / technical, game theory, and changing economic / geopolitical policy with the new US Presidential Administration. Monetary seems mixed to me. The strong dollar attracts capital. However higher interest rates can potentially divert capital to less risky investments. Fed policy is not that accommodating as in the past, potentially putting a "soft ceiling" to valuations. Of course, there always seems to be plenty of liquidity for new ETFs, helping to provide additional fuel for market rises. Sentiment seems very bullish now, especially among retail investors. Technically, the market is in an uptrend on the daily and "only" +3 ATR from the 63 day moving average, representing a quarter. Stock indexes have often "ridden" along the +5 ATR level in bull markets, with corrections to mean often involving a long wait. It was not that long ago we had such a correction. With game theory, my thinking is how market participants interact with each other. This includes market makers, funds of various types and objectives, and retail investors. Recent price action of the last couple of days, with seeming muted breakouts as compared to historical rallies and recent relatively narrow range RTH days may indicate institutional distribution into strong retail buying. However, we may be seeing increased market maker hedging of retail driven options trading that may be a stabilizing factor as long there are no major events. With economic and geopolitical policy, the potential implementation of trade tariffs may spark a trade war and weakened key international relationships. There are many negative ways this can manifest itself, potentially causing an exaggerated market move. In other words, I believe appetite for risk among professional traders may face headwinds and could very well decrease should uncertainty increases. In conclusion, I'm likely early in my call of a major selloff, perhaps by years. However, my net directional exposure with my options positions will remain small until more timeframes become more supportive technically to my thesis or adjust my thesis to become more supportive of current market technicals!
I was going to tell you to go F yourself, but since it's your thread I will honor your request. Not missing anything anyways. Watching many overthink an unstoppable bull market. I've been wanting to quit this place or step back anyways. This is not worth my time. The content overall is subpar. Enjoy and best of luck.
Nothing which haven't happened multiple times in the past and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Haha. But as long as one is flat and not shorting, no harm done. But shorting a market because it's 'gone up too much' is usually not a good idea. I guess you're not among those who think Trump will make America great again, then?
TA < Trump I'm sure Trump will not allow a single red day on his first week in office and I'm sure his goons on Wall Street already got that memo. He may even be buying stocks himself with his memecoin profits to boost the market. Partially joking. Partially serious.
The picture is a joke, right? Actually, I think that most people overestimate the effect that Trump may have on the stock market, one way or the other. Sure, his random tweets or whatever may move the 1-minute chart like crazy, but where is the market going to be in 6-12-24 months? (and then trade along that trend). In the end the most important thing is: where are people with lots of money going to park their cash? Not that many (good) options if you ask me.
Oh, there's a web page that tells you when he's going to speak? I don't see anything like that in my economic calendar OK, I see it now https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar
Yes. Scheduled talk today at noon. Copy and paste from Bloomberg. Potentially a nothingburger. Potentially like a FOMC event with Powell.