ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Since PPI news 10 year yield has dropped 107 basis points.
     
    christhesquid and Sekiyo like this.
  2. got close.
    I covered the really bad entries. +40 on one of them. But took heat. Bad timing.
    Holding the half decent one with the intention of adding the ones I covered back on soonish...
    upload_2025-5-15_19-23-26.png
     
    Picaso and Sekiyo like this.
  3. mervyn

    mervyn

    Smart Money Loses to Retail Crowd That Bet on Stock Rebound
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-on-epic-stock-rebound?srnd=homepage-americas

    President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement on April 2 devastated financial assets, wiping out some $6 trillion in market value from US stocks in just two trading days. Wall Street’s “smart money” — hedge funds and other professional investors — dumped equities, and strategists urged clients to flee.

    But the so-called dumb money, embodied by retail traders, didn’t see things that way. To them, the stock market was suddenly on sale, meaning it was time to buy, not hide. And it turns out they were right, as Trump reversed himself a week later and paused most of his levies on April 9, sending the S&P 500 Index soaring 18% since then.
     
    TrailerParkTed likes this.
  4. mervyn

    mervyn

    it is what volfefe is.

    few days ago cheetos is going to bomb iran, oil shot up, now he says that he has a deal with iran, oil drops. smart money is in a daze.

    ready to long tlt/tmf in equity account.
     
    Last edited: May 15, 2025 at 3:58 PM
  5. mervyn

    mervyn

    NoahA likes this.
  6. I heard someone complaining about backwardation with bonds, they didn’t know why it was happening. I have no idea what they’re talking about.
     
  7. mervyn

    mervyn

    fed put
     
    TrailerParkTed likes this.
  8. mervyn

    mervyn

    ### **Market Implications:**

    - **Investor Behavior:** Backwardation incentivizes holding physical bonds now rather than futures contracts, as the spot market offers perceived immediate benefits (e.g., coupons, liquidity).
    - **Arbitrage Opportunities:** Traders might exploit the price differential by selling bonds spot and buying futures, profiting from convergence at expiry.
    - **Signal of Sentiment:** Persistent backwardation may indicate bearish long-term rate expectations or heightened demand for short-term bond holdings.
     
    TrailerParkTed likes this.
  9. Did everyone here make money today trading in the exchange market store casino warehouse,,:)..:confused:.., High--Fives All++Around,.That's right. That's right
     
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Isn't MAGA backwardation?

    Make America Great like 1970's inflation

    Make America Great like the 1918 Pandemic

    Make America Great like the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act 2025 edition.

    Maybe even ...

    Make America Great Again like 1960's Cold War only this time with China.