Until "Them" has lost control. At some point, the 10 year yield will go up no matter what "Them" does. With yields going higher, all borrowing gets more expensive, and everything crashes as a result. What's even worse is if there would be no more demand for the bonds, and the Fed has to start buying larger and larger portions of it since other buyers aren't stepping up. Let's not forget that $9T or so of bonds need to be rolled over this year. And with the world moving more towards a multi-polar world order, there mind be less demand for not only US currency, but also US assets. I've read that foreigners might be forced to sell US assets not because they want to, but because they have to, and this means both hard assets like real estate, but also equities, etc. This rally seems to be because all the tariff talk has been hugely walked back, but none of this means the economy is strong and resilient. The slowdown is still coming. You cannot pull any more future growth into the present in order to create the illusion of a strong economy. The past decade has been about pushing the debt problem further into the future, but this is the year where "Them" is going to be forced to deal with the debt problem and how to reduce it or make it go away through some sort of devaluation. It cannot be pushed forward anymore in its current form.
Don't be short overnight. This won't fall from the sky. Even if there is a pullback it won't be able to accomplish this via a gap and will flash some sort of doji first. So you would have to wait till Thursday. Otherwise ride the free money train $$$$$
We printed our way out of the subprime mortgage collapse. Nothing was ever corrected properly. Nobody wants to go through the pain of a longterm recession that’s needed to bring back realistic fundamentals for companies. I agree with what you’re saying and that’s what eventually should happen. It’s just getting more difficult to see a time when it will. And they’d rather burn the whole thing down than feel a little bit of pain.
This is a good post. The thing is, as @broomstick has already responded with - these guys are masters of kicking the can. Obviously that atomic bomb goes off eventually, but good look timing it. Graveyards full of bears as far as the eyes can see. **EDIT: Im still expecting new lows... just not sure if it's this year or into '26. Not Armageddon though, but it could be years of a stagflation type environment for obvious reasons.
I absolutely agree that timing this is difficult, but I honestly think we saw just a few weeks ago how trapped "Them" is. The 10 year bond was the reason for Trump's 180 degree correction. And we have also seen the dollar get weak at a time when it should have been strong. Now Trump doing a deal with China, which isn't really a deal mind, clearly shows that they weren't really ready to take on any pain. DOGE, as much as I support government spending cuts, really didn't do anything. So everything has really been tried. I even remember reading that Bessent made some comment a while back that maybe they could look into changing the rates or the duration on some of the bonds that the bondholders already have (ie. a soft default from what I read). But this is of course suicide. So we just have to see how the next few months play out, and what happens with the individual bonds as they need to be rolled over. I don't know the breakdown of which months are heavy, but I'd certainly hope that this is the year we finally see some fireworks because you can't hide the fact that this is the year when so much of the debt needs to be re-issued and they haven't been able to bring down rates one bit or cut spending.
Because there's no reason to. Why would you when the good times will never end? Why would it go to new lows? Just because you feel it should? This entire rally and V should prove to everyone finally that fundamentals never mattered and never will. Think of the market as a bunch of earthquakes or seismic events. At some point you get an earthquake like we had in April or August. Sometimes it happens and even V-man can't see or believe it, but once it happens that's it. Sometimes you get after shocks like the few red days after April 7th, but ultimately it winds down and the market is back to going up again and making new highs. Why because everyone wants in this market and doesn't want to regret missing a great opportunity. Any dip is seen as an opportunity. The price or valuation DOESN"T matter. If you can get this on sale by 10% you want n! Also everyone knows by now it will V. The only question is how fast. So how exactly is this going to hit new lows? You would have to see something new that no one thought was possible. And the cycle just repeats again. The earthquake happens and eventually me move on and rally back to new ATH. Just how it goes. Why is bitcoin worth 104K? Because everyone wants in. That's all the market is really. You have this guaranteed money making machine that almost always goes up.
You also said it was never ever going down 20% again, even a 5% drop would be a miracle. When are you going to keep your promise?
Obviously I do because I've been telling you for weeks this would rally and V, while you keep shorting.