ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    (CNBC)

    When the Federal Open Market Committee met in March, U.S. President Donald Trump had yet to unleash his so-called "reciprocal" tariffs on the world.

    But Fed policymakers were already bracing for the impact of trade barriers. At the conclusion of that meeting, the FOMC lowered its economic forecast for the U.S. and hiked its inflation projection. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said "a good part" of the downbeat forecast "is coming from tariffs."

    On April 2, Trump stunned even the most pessimistic of market watchers when he held aloft the board with a list of higher-than-expected tariffs on many countries. Even though Trump has since paused them, the Fed seems to be operating on the (very uncertain) assumption Trump could reinstate those eye-watering levies at any moment.

    At the FOMC's most recent meeting that concluded Wednesday, Powell no longer pulled punches in his post-meeting press conference, as he did in March. This time, he placed the responsibility squarely on Trump's tariffs, saying they "are likely" to cause hotter inflation, slower economic growth and higher unemployment — recipes for a stagflationary scenario.

    So far, that's the clearest warning from a U.S. authority about the damage tariffs could wreak. However, considering that Trump has not only expressed frustrations with Powell, but also said on Wednesday he wouldn't consider lowering the 145% tariff on China to start trade negotiations with the country, it's unlikely that Trump would heed the Fed's caution.

    — Yeo Boon Ping
     
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  2. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    US-UK trade pact will leave the 10% US tariff in place - CNN.

    Trump’s trade announcement with the UK will be limited in scope, heavy on future commitments & leave the existing 10% universal tariffs in place, a US & UK official tell - CNN Reporter on X

    UK Officials see the US deal as initially focused on cars and steel - FT.

    Greatest deal evveeerrrr
     
  3. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Schrunky Trumpy

    ! Shrunky Trumpy.jpg
     
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  4. Picaso

    Picaso

    Deal with a conman, get conned :D
     
    HawaiianIceberg likes this.
  5. tfp

    tfp

    Looks like shorts into 5645-5665 targets. Sustained breaks above 5680s invalidate the setup.

    2025-05-08_09-13-14.png
     
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    IMO prior settlement is more important than close.
     
    tfp likes this.
  7. tfp

    tfp

    Plenty of trades on both sides of this for all...
     
  8. mervyn

    mervyn

    the deal with uk is inconsequential. rover and austin martin got some lower rate but still higher than before, there is a cap of 100k vehicles per year. uk will buy us beef but not the hormone beef. formal signing may or may not happen in 12 months.
     
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  9. tfp

    tfp

    No wonder e(minis) could not reach 5645s - the front bonnet stopped it!

    2025-05-08_10-32-51.png
     
  10. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    I bailed out on my VIX.
     
    Buy1Sell2 and Relentless like this.