I should have read the news before posting! “President Donald Trump said he could offer some exemptions to his 10% tariff on most US trading partners — even as he insisted that it was “pretty close” to a floor for nations seeking to negotiate trade deals. “… “I think something positive is going to come” Trump told reporters Friday when asked about the trade fight with China, calling his counterpart Chinese President Xi Jinping “a very good leader, a very smart leader.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ats-possible-exceptions-to-10-baseline-tariff
china has cutouts in vietnam and mexico for last few years, the goods will arrive onshore regardless, maybe the price will jump 10% or less. but that is a mirage. on the flip side of the coin, china never imposed full tariffs on us goods before, only selected products, it is the first time. i can’t see how general us goods can be sold into their country. for semi chips, us companies can move the manufacturing to overseas factories instead of fabs inside us, which will be hit 125% tariffs. and all 75 nations, if they are real, don’t mount a bean in comparison to china, eu, and canada exports. no juice to squeeze, no money to shake.
Fuck, don’t even get me started on those MMT clowns. Once I dive in, it’s a nonstop carnival of printing Monopoly money and pretending inflation’s just a ghost story. Blink twice and suddenly I’m a fanboy of Congress, cheering for universal basic boredom—I mean income. I’ll be pounding this keyboard till the keys fall off. But this is where it gets interesting. How would these clowns see a failed bond auction? No biggie. “Who gives a shit if no one buys it. Just print more, duh.” They treat Treasury auctions like a liquidity drain, not a funding need. As if the global market’s just gonna shrug and keep kissing the ring. Now toss in Trump lighting every trade relationship on fire like he’s grilling marshmallows on diplomacy, and guess what? China and Japan might ghost the next auction. Then what? Yields spike, dollar goes limp, capital bolts, and suddenly the ‘sovereign currency’ fantasy gets throat-punched by reality. MMT assumes demand for USD and Treasuries is eternal like it's a religion. But when the Fed’s left buying its own crap and the dollar starts twitching, we’ll see how fast that printer turns into a shredder. It's more like, the magic money printer goes brrrr…straight into a fucking wall.
10 hours ago — Tudor Investment Corp. “ Tudor Investment Corp. trader Alexander Phillips lost about $140 million in April through earlier this week as President Donald Trump’s tariff barrage hammered financial markets, including US Treasuries. The mark-to-market losses on Phillips’ trading book erased his pre-April gains for 2025, and he was down by about $80 million for the year as of earlier this week, according to people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified discussing private details. … While the April losses aren’t huge in the context of a firm that manages $16 billion, the speed of Phillips’ turnaround shows how many traders are having trouble navigating the recent volatility…” Bloomberg
Ain't that wonderful—pure cult worship. “Here’s your Fox News wet dream, folks!" Yeah, I'm about to have an orgasm.
Some governments are cancelling their issues because of the turmoil. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/st...uction-after-market-rout-Jgc2Z2PDcwQqNJZR51Lt
You surely remember the recent unwinding of the JPY carry, right? I think we're about to see the same here. USD drops, treasuries drop, RMB drops even more... Plus new houses more expensive to build (tariffs) and existing ones more unaffordable (rates) Plus unemployment going up (uncertainty) yet at the same time many job vacancies go unfilled (undocumented migrants either not here or afraid to show up)... Plus the risk premium you mentioned... OK, my worst permabear instincts are growling up, I'll go take a pill
Trump isn't watching jack like a hawk. In the SOTU speech he ***bragged*** that rates were going down (because the market was tanking)
One of the reasons they're rejecting offers of 0% tariffs on US goods is that they need the "promise" of trillions of income in tariffs so they can justify their $5 trillion (or whatever) tax cuts and not reveal that the actual plan is to just cut entitlements. By hitting the market with the actual tariffs *before* they passed the tax cuts, they jumped the gun and fucked up their plan. My guess is that the Great Leader wanted to divert attention from the whiskeyleaks or that guy in El Salvador, etc.
We saw the "worst" scenario From last Thursday- this Monday. That was as good as it gets for the bears. Thing is it's going to be really hard to reignite that drop again. Whatever theory you have, the market has already moved on and bottomed. This will be quite similar to August actually and boy was that a powerful V. So in this case he will cancel everything and just say it was the plan all around/ spin it as a win. His base and fox news will eat it up. Market will celebrate like nothing happens and just V itself like usual.