ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. mervyn

    mervyn

    the number in the street is that we will have 6.5 trillion debts matured in june, worrying not enough buyers to roll and the fed has to eat it. anyone hears that?

    ps, normally foreign buyers take 30%
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2025
    #4491     Apr 11, 2025
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  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    6.5 trill on top of the 6.7 trill (as of this week) they are still trying to offload?

    I haven't heard anything yet.

    BTW this week's report was 3 years after the all time high level of 8.9 trill in April 2022:-

    ! FEDBS Apr 2025.png
     
    #4492     Apr 11, 2025
  3. schizo

    schizo

    Exactly. I've been bitching about this for the last 2 weeks. The mainstream’s barely touching it, but I know bond guys are sweating over this shit right now.

    if this thing wobbles hard enough, you can say goodbye to the dollar hegemony. But wait a minute. That’s how empires die, right? Quietly. Slowly. Then all at once. :sneaky:

    With foreigners stepping back from Treasuries, if not selling them outright, there's a good chance the dollar will crash. And if June really is a monster rollover month with $6.5 trillion on deck, how long do you think it'll be before the average Joe starts noticing gas at ten bucks at the pump or grocery prices going through the roof?

    So yeah, Xi and Trump can meme at each other all they want. But real ones know: the debt is the real friggin' bomb. And June might just be the month it goes off.
     
    #4493     Apr 11, 2025
  4. schizo

    schizo

    Here's a nightmare scenario that could possibly happen, which everyone should be aware of.

    Uncle Sam shows up to auction off Treasuries but no foreign buyers show up. No private buyers. Fed’s the only bidder left at the table.

    What happens next?

    → Dollar tanks—because if nobody wants Treasuries, they sure as hell don’t want dollars either.

    → Rates spike—because the US would have to jack yields sky-high to even beg for new buyers.

    → Liquidity dries up globally—because Treasuries are the global collateral layer. No Treasuries, no trust, no leverage, no trade flow. Everybody starts hoarding dollars locally while dumping them globally. Absolute chaos.

    → Risk assets bleed out—stocks, corporate bonds, real estate...all roadkill.

    And here's the real kicker. In that mess, credit could absolutely freeze up. Banks get terrified, spreads blow out, nobody wants to lend a damn thing because who knows what the hell the dollar will be worth tomorrow. Emerging markets implode first, but it spreads like fire.

    Before you know it, the US loses the “risk-free asset” status. No coming back from that without nuking the entire financial system first.

    This is why guys like Trump (for all his tariff chest-beating) watch Treasuries like hawks. Because the moment that auction fails—really fails—it’s game over.
     
    #4494     Apr 11, 2025
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  5. The talking heads said China was selling just enough to get Trump’s attention. One of the analysts said they have a lot of stocks they could unload with their bonds to make a point. High stakes chicken?
     
    #4495     Apr 11, 2025
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  6. mervyn

    mervyn

    sure they do, you don't think they buy some spy, apple etc, just like norway sovereign wealth fund?
     
    #4496     Apr 11, 2025
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  7. mervyn

    mervyn

    that's what mmt guys don't get.

    where is that dude posting here last year? @piezoe
     
    #4497     Apr 11, 2025
  8. themickey

    themickey

    dde252e07b0279972ae7f45e281097d3.jpg
     
    #4498     Apr 11, 2025
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  9. themickey

    themickey

    20250412_110107.jpg
    The future to look foward to.
     
    #4499     Apr 11, 2025
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  10. Don’t you think the Administration will cave on almost everything except a tiny tariff and extend the tax cuts. Fox News Headlines “Mission Accomplished”, “Art of the Deal”, “Stable Genius”, “Trump Won!”
     
    #4500     Apr 11, 2025
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