ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. NoahA

    NoahA

    Seems like Bill is on the wrong side of the trade and wants to talk his own book.

    This is why the idea of regulations surrounding insider trading and market manipulation is bullshit. The guys at the top do it all anyway. The way to level the playing field is to make it legal for everyone. Then every investor knows the game they are playing. The way it is now, the well connected get to play the game their way, while everyone has has to play it the supposedly honourable way.
     
    #4341     Apr 10, 2025
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  2. I don’t like Bill, he’s a tool!
     
    #4342     Apr 10, 2025
  3. schizo

    schizo

    I dunno if you've been following my posts about gold and dollar, but gold has already topped and the dollar also bottomed as of today. And if gold sells off while the dollar reverses back up, that would be a good news for the equity. Hence I would be cautious about shorting S&P. Just don't say I didn't warn ya. :)

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/posts/6114174/

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/usd-sell-sell-sell.383275/
     
    #4343     Apr 10, 2025
  4. “The $576 billion SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed roughly 90 basis points above its net asset value (NAV)after a 10.5% surge on Wednesday, the largest one-day gain in 16 years. This significant difference between the ETF's trading price and its underlying asset value is unusual, as SPY's average dislocation to its NAV over the past decade has been only a fraction of a basis point..”

    Bloomberg
     
    #4344     Apr 10, 2025
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  5. Yesterday seems like one big market manipulation to me and once more shows us how big a crook Trump is. I believe I saw a lot of chatter here about a bottom being in. I don't think so. I don't see that much changed at all.

    Anyway, I like to work with the data. So, in my data set going back to 1990, I only found 4 other days exceeding the 9th of April in terms of % change. Two happened during the financial crisis in 08. Two others in 2020, but I didn't have the time to look them up right now (they came near the bottom, though).

    Let's look at 2008.

    upload_2025-4-10_23-28-4.png

    Looking at that last day - the market bottomed out 129 calendar days later almost 30 % lower than the closing price on the 28th of October.

    upload_2025-4-10_23-30-40.png

    I'm not suggesting history will repeat itself, but I am suggesting that one and even two huge up days don't necessarily mean anything.
     
    #4345     Apr 10, 2025
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  6. christhesquid

    christhesquid

    They don't as long as the narrative doesn't change.
     
    #4346     Apr 10, 2025
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  7. #4347     Apr 10, 2025
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  8. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    #4348     Apr 10, 2025
  9. Picaso

    Picaso

    He later apologized profusely :D
     
    #4349     Apr 10, 2025
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  10. Picaso

    Picaso

    I agree with LaisseFaire.

    2008, COVID and the Trade Wars had all different drivers, but they were persistent problems that also happened to occur during overbought markets.

    I'm my view we'll be seeing at least 30% from the top.

    And Trump will have to fold, again, this time with China.

    Meanwhile, the US making friends and influencing people...

    https://www.reuters.com/technology/...or-more-fine-us-probe-sources-say-2025-04-08/
     
    #4350     Apr 10, 2025
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