News from China. FinancialJuice on X: " ⚠️ BREAKING: China finance ministry: To impose additional tariffs of 84% on US goods" / X
Long-only if you ignore all the losers kicked to the curb when they rejuggle the components, and if you ignore all the drops along the way. One minute bar is not one lifetime. Ignoring down moves is not IMO what trading is all about.
Interactive Brokers raises margins to 25,000 (ES) and 42,000 (NQ)... At 9:00 am Central European Time (3:00 EST) I see a 110 points 5 minute bar, so even that may not be enough... And bonds... WTF...
even apple panicked, 5 cargos of gadgets, 4 days inventory https://appleinsider.com/articles/25/04/09/apples-airlifting-imports-to-beat-tariff-deadline-included-macs While details are sketchy, the publication claims that Apple, Dell, Microsoft, and Lenovo all shipped their most premium devices to the States. Specifically, it's said that the shipments included computers priced at over $3,000. These are estimates upon estimates. With their old and very broad figures, Apple may have stockpiled enough iPhones to last at least just over four days on top of whatever it had in the country already. And then, there's stock that Apple vendors hold too.
Exactly, so far the reaction is to the *threat* of the tariffs. Now in some cases it will take days, weeks or a month or two, but then we'll see the reaction to the actual *effects* of the tariffs. EU announcing soon.
(BLOOMBERG) All about that basis trade An unnerving development is starting to unfold as Donald Trump’s trade war hammers financial markets: US Treasuries, far from offering shelter from the turmoil, are suddenly losing their haven appeal. The plunge in bond prices brings back memories of the onset of the pandemic, says James Athey of Marlborough Investment Management, when widespread deleveraging sparked blowups of a popular hedge fund strategy known as the basis trade. While there’s little concrete evidence of dealers cutting off financing or hedge funds getting caught wrong-footed thus far, Athey said he can’t shake the feeling that recent moves are just a taste of the hidden risk lurking beneath the market’s surface. “It looked like in March 2020 when we got these wild moves, possibly relating to the basis trade,” he said. “Last week we had not seen any signs of hedge funds getting stopped out of the bond futures basis, but suddenly you’re seeing yields spike.” The basis trade is a strategy hedge funds use to wager on the minuscule gaps between prices of cash Treasuries and futures. They typically borrow to multiply their bets, up to 50 or 100 times the capital invested. Recent estimates put the amount of existing wagers at about $1 trillion, roughly double what is was five years ago. Problems can arise when market turmoil upends the economics of the trade and forces investors to rapidly unwind their positions to repay their loans. It can create a cascading effect that causes yields to surge, or even worse, the Treasury market to seize up, much like what occurred in 2020. There are plenty of other reasons bonds might be selling off: The trade war will trigger stagflation that may prevent interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Foreign investors may be ditching US debt. Maybe fund managers are flocking to cash-like shorter-dated securities as risk assets swoon. And finally, portfolio managers may be selling to make room for a flood of new Treasury securities this week. —Liz Capo McCormick and Michael Mackenzie