ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. mervyn

    mervyn

    you think hasset is at least a trained economist in the room but no, he is a cheetos worshipper, for cushy jobs. scarier if he replaces powell.


    Stagflation Is Now America’s Best-Case Scenario
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...america-s-best-case-scenario?srnd=phx-opinion
    Opinion Bill Dudley, Columnist

    The impact will be devastating. Over the next six months, annualized inflation will likely climb to nearly 5%, as tariffs boost import prices and as domestic producers, shielded from competition, take advantage of the situation to raise their prices as well.

    Meanwhile, demand will decline. Businesses will delay investments amid uncertainty about the duration and breadth of tariffs and about the degree of foreign retaliation. People will cut back on spending as they adjust to what amounts to a tax hike of $600 billion or more.

    For bonds, the main issue will be the trajectory of short-term interest rates. Currently, markets are pricing in more than 100 basis points of easing this year. I think that’s likely (and justified) only in the event of an actual economic downturn.
     
    #3721     Apr 7, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  2. Bad_Badness

    Bad_Badness

    First sign of that is the probably the bounce "reason". It will be timed with some magical support: Fib, Golden ratio, Planetary alignment, or some TA-ish notion. The Algo Gods dictate it.

    Meanwhile we have time for another leg down. The proposed window is "60 days" to explain your actions Mr. President. That would be a lot of damage. Probably too much by most measures. So Congress could pass the first resolution, if they can get the senate votes, and then pass another resolution to do an emergency rescinding.

    This is typical Trump. Do damage and "win" even though it can be repaired and hardened against later.
     
    #3722     Apr 7, 2025
    Picaso and schizo like this.
  3. Spooz Top 2

    Spooz Top 2

    I literally Live for days like this... These are the Vol style markets I cut my teeth on back in the late 90`s........... Flat out Ecstasy!

    Nice work Apprentice....
     
    #3723     Apr 7, 2025
    vztrdr and c1rcle like this.
  4. Muni bonds got hammered, today’s 52 week list is filled with them. 4.4-5% yields on some, why would they be tanking? Kruppy posted this, what’s making him nervous? Kruppy was on Elite like 25 years ago.



     
    #3724     Apr 7, 2025
    schizo likes this.
  5. Just received a call from a friend of mine. His grandfather just passed away and he's going through his belongings. He said he had a box of Trump steaks (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Steaks) in his freezer.

    Think they're still good to eat?
     
    #3725     Apr 7, 2025
    TrailerParkTed likes this.
  6. mervyn

    mervyn

    see my zn trades, got called away last friday unexpectedly and today the price dropped below my covered call price exp friday. but in the end, it is all about fed rate expectations, now priced 1% cut but many said it is unlikely since inflation is still high.

    bond markets got panicked.
     
    #3726     Apr 7, 2025
    Picaso and TrailerParkTed like this.
  7. mervyn

    mervyn

    hey back to active posting?
     
    #3727     Apr 7, 2025
  8. TommyD557

    TommyD557

    How many cars do you sling around in this kind of Vol?
     
    #3728     Apr 7, 2025
  9. schizo

    schizo

    Damn, bro, where ya been? Thought you might’ve blown up your account or something. Besides B1S2 (and me, of course), you’re one of the old-timers here, rolling all the way back to 2007-ish. Good to see you back!
     
    #3729     Apr 7, 2025
    Picaso and c1rcle like this.
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Did grandpa get a two-fer steak and a bible? Good to go if he has bible handy in case of last rites.
     
    #3730     Apr 7, 2025
    christhesquid likes this.