worst case scenario if china drops tariff to zero for every country except usa https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/china-retaliating.383925/page-3#post-6113791 take exmaple of china, they make more than half of manufacturing goods, that is hard currency. when you wake up tomorrow and they ask walmart to pay for the purchase orders in chinese currency and not accepting us dollars, walmart will scramble and call jpm/citi/boa for chinese rmb. in turn those commercial banks don't have enough rmb and will call the fed. even the fed doesn't have that much rmb in reserve and can only exchange with gold with the chines central bank. puff, fort knox gold bars will be flown to china and the chinese now can send zero-and-one that we must use.
I don't have the numbers here, but if I recall correctly China does not charge exhorbitant tariffs (average 6% or so, a bit high, but nothing crazy). Their barries to trade are of a different type (forced technology transfer, censorship, etc.)
That take was written back in August 2024, and like meme stocks, a lot of shit has come and gone since. But clinging to the idea that the USD is somehow untouchable as the reserve currency, especially after seeing how everything has gone down since the return of the Orange Man, feels borderline delusional at this point. With the almighty dollar not exactly looking green these days, that kind of narrative can only age like sour milk in this environment.
their goal is not to replace usd, it is to reduce usd use in global trade settlements if us is not a party. those guys are smart to know replacing one money with another is the same game. it will create trade deficit. they want a modern version of barter system.
finally i had the guts this moring to reconcile futures p&l in excel from friday in the sea of reds, obviously equity and oil marks were down -24.88% from previous day, particularly with crude dropped from 66-62. however zn/zt long underlying positions were called away unexpectedly and profits were realized immaturely. doesn't seem like a bad day, almost 5 rolex. the good part is that margin money is released and have more room to plan next trades. wall of worries remains, short and medium term extremely bearish - short 10y and long cl, add rty slowly in small lots and sell any rallies - short strangles on es 0dte and/or mwf - not taking any leap calls on spx/es until 20% correct level, that goes with ym too
Good to see that you managed to get out more or less unscathed, congrats (I'm assuming the big hit was the CL, I hope you get a bounce)
Oh, that's prime setup for maximum snark. Bold call to be shorting the crash after it already happened. Real visionary stuff. Respect.