(BLOOMBERG) Markets in meltdown Investors were forced to reckon with President Donald Trump’s vision for the US economy this week, and the verdict was dire: the trade war he unleashed is threatening to set off a worldwide recession — and fast. Less than 48 hours after Trump rolled out his punitive tariffs, China retaliated. Now traders are pricing in what increasingly looks like a negative-feedback loop as Trump indicates he’s not going to back down. Here's how the week ended: The S&P 500 fell 9% for the week and capped the worst two-day plunge since March 2020. The rout has shed about bear market. European stocks tumbled into a correction. Wall Street’s fear gauge — the CBOE Volatility Index or the VIX — spiked to 45. Treasuries and the Japanese yen rallied as investors sought havens. Ten-year US yields dipped below 4%. The dollar was volatile, rebounding 1% on Friday. It had plunged in the previous session as Deutsche Bank analysts warned of a “confidence crisis.” Bitcoin was trading about 2% higher on Friday around $83,800. Oil tumbled to a four-year low. West Texas Intermediate futures fell about 12% in just two days. Copper plunged below $9,000 a ton. The cost to protect investment-grade debt against default surged by the most since the regional banking meltdown of March 2023. “We are rapidly headed towards recession,” said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategies at Academy Securities. “The world was prepared for ‘reciprocal tariffs.’ Whatever the abomination that was launched at the Rose Garden was, it is a disaster — mostly for the US, but also for the global economy.” Not even the announcement that US payrolls climbed faster than expected last month was able to change the narrative. That's old news now. In a note titled “There Will Be Blood,” economists at JPMorgan Chase said they now see the chance of a US recession at 60%, double the probability they had at the start of the year. They reckon the tariffs are equivalent to the biggest US tax hike since 1968. And central banks may not be rushing to the rescue. While markets added to bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to the tune of a full percentage point by the end of the year, Chair Jerome Powell added to nerves by noting the tariffs looked larger than expected and that policymakers must ensure they don't fan inflation. “It’s unclear how a few potential rate cuts this year will undo the economic damage that these tariffs are likely to cause,” said Emily Bowersock Hill at Bowersock Capital Partners. —Denitsa Tsekova, Esha Dey, Isabelle Lee and Liz Capo McCormick, Rita Nazareth
•Largest single-day drop: 324.89 points on March 16, 2020. •Largest consecutive-day cumulative drop: No single, standardized figure is commonly cited. chatgpt can’t even understand consecutive-day or cumulative, wtf.
Bald call, but a call We should swap rolexes for a night, but i think you own a lot of theme so difficult to choose
I don't think a rate cut would help here. What are you gonna do, get a mortgage to buy eggs or whatever but be happy because you got a better rate? What would help is Congress reclaiming its authority over tariffs. Or Trump folding or declaring victory or whatever, but pulling the tariffs. Meanwhile, in main street America:
sounds like me… I trade extremely fast charts for scalps both directions on days I trade though. I do think we’ll be up Monday and possibly Tuesday. Lower thereafter. But if we can’t get a solid dead cat bounce up on Monday, it’s looking pretty bad long-term imo.
100 tick NQ and I got my ass handed to me a few times today, so I walked away and came back. I mentioned a bounce near the end of the day. I caught that and made up for getting beat up this morning.
And really need to dump NQ and head over to ES. NQ has been brutal for awhile, a double-edged sword. But with this volatility, it’s not good. Today was ridiculous.
100 ticks is not possible. it is fast but not liquid, the price level is likely to jump outside of the dom and skip.