@vztrdr and @schizo , I was thinking, for example of defense: who's going to buy F35s from the US going forward? Also, not even during the Roman empire or the Tang dynasty had so many scientists flocked to one single country. What happens if the situation in universities keeps deteriorating, both in terms of funds and "atmosphere"? Even products that seem easy to go back to, say bourbon, can be tricky. You don't drink it for a couple of months (too expensive), you're likely to go back to it when price drops. You cannot afford it for a year or two, you're likely to develop a taste for Scotch or whatever substitute, etc. We're not there yet, imho, but this tariffs on this week, off next week, etc. is not going to fly for much longer. And then things start breaking. When it comes to trading I do agree that the only thing that matters is the price chart. Best trading to all.
"You get more with honey than vinegar". Someone who thinks only one side can win a a negotiation doesn't believe the above saying. Which makes me think we are in for a long haul. Not - nevermind go back to what you were doing, everything is peachy again.
Circling back to ES, here's what my memo states for tomorrow (still hot off the press). GAP DOWN OPEN SUNDAY NIGHT LOW WILL BE AROUND 5500 EXPECT VIOLENT CHOPS
I have to say - I do find it spooky that vol markets don't seem worried. Also don't believe we've seen any real fear or capitulation all the way down. Very well distributed. What does it take to shake complacency for the consensus that this is just "another routine correction" ?
Tonight Globex action could be a start. Often gaps on Monday daily bar (which includes tonight's trading of course) are breakaway gaps. If that is the case this time around could get interesting.
Guess I took profit too early, But I made a nice +30% on VIX calls. Now I am sitting on my hands … Guess that was too early. I expect April 1-2 to be like March 3-4 Down +1% but … I am flat Wish you the best