At the end of the day we're all guessing and I wager to say nobody nobody have the faintest clue what's going to happen medium term or long term - including myself. Trump is a big deal, though. In a negative way. AI and tech is probably a piece of the puzzle. I agree with that.
not many folks were here during his first term, volfefe, then 3 or 4 circuit breakers wiped my day trading account. not until he started to print money and bailed the market, still difficult trades. only some heavy leap calls on aapl and spxl save the days. the easiest period was 2020-2021 then the economy was in recovering mode. i am not bullish for the next four years.
If I may add to your comment, markets essentially move in cycles. And we've had the longest bull market in history from 2009 to this year. Most traders, I would think, weren't even around in 2009. This perhaps gave them a false sense of security that it's impossible for this market to really go down, or that the government will ultimately step in and bail them out if that ever happens. But we're now in a period of many uncertainties: politically, economically, technologically, ecologically, and even epidemiologically (ie. Covid? who woulda thought...). And what feels more like fiction than reality is that they're all happening at the same time.
True, but you said it yourself... They don't happen when everything is bright and sunny, and we ARE in interesting times. If Trump doesn't back off some... what was it that the Treasury Secretary said(?): "We may go through a little detox." To expound upon his analogy, a rate cut would be the mandated shot of Naloxone. If all the bears are right and this tariff stuff sends us over the cliff, it will have to happen.
Sometimes I wonder if that is really what Trump is up to. Push the Fed just far enough to spook them into an emergency 1% cut, and then drop all but the most obvious tariffs. Do that, and the economy/markets would roar.
he is cluelss and his eco team are kissing the ring. emergency cut does nothing. look at september last year, sort of emergency cut 50bps due to nfp number, subsequently two 25bps cuts had no effects on 10y. price dropped from 115 to 107, that translates to $8k loss per contract. the eco needs to put inflation under control first before comtemplates other factors. china-us trade war inflationary effect finanlly kicked in before he left the office, while the china has disinflation on consumer goods, we had 10% inflation yoy.