Granted, you know that economics, as well as world politics, doesn't work that way. You leave me speechless.
I'll disagree, kindly of course. Anything in this world is possible - especially the unknown going forward.
But what I think @Relentless was getting at was that perception is what drives the money. For example, when Powell states he would leave the rates alone, it helps to shape future expectation and reduce volatility.
I skipped the rest of the discussion. My point is merely that I don't think markets price in new information quickly. It takes time. Unless it's an actual market crash. They happen once in a while, too. Right now the main driver of the down turn would be Trump. At least that's my interpretation.
I always respect your opinion of course, but in this instance I disagree to some extent. While I think '22 is a reasonable comparison, I believe we hit - 20% at best, but I doubt even that. A rocky first half of '25, maybe into Q3. Then up she goes. Will be interesting for sure.
I think this is the view of many, but a bit too simplistic. There's a lot of shit going on. Has the U.S. economy really been strong for years now, or just riding the same few pipe dreams (A.I. etc.) - and maybe now the highs are wearing off a bit.
isn’t that a given? the lower rate the higher bond price, folks are going to buy safety. but what if dxy is not holding up and no one wants the us paper?
on that note, i bought 1oz gold bar every year since i was out of school, like being a collector of things.